NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	6.3 [544]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +39.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	2.7 [355]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (POR): -7.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	23	57%	0.15	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Arron Afflalo	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	55%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
J.R. Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	23	43%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	10	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.24	0.17	0.01	26	71%	0.46	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.17	0.08	0.06	8	106%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	9	61%	0.11	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	7	79%	0.13	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.02	0.00	10	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.8	39.1	18.7	26.0	2.8	32.2	144.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +58.3%

DEN -2.2%

POR +0.3%

DEN -7.2%

POR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.9	19.0	15.3	114.3	124.4	106.0
season	14.4	16.7		110.3	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	13.6	17.1	15.0	14.9
POR	20.3	19.1	17.1	19.3	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	35	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-13	15	15.2	14.6	0.64	19.1	18.9	0.14
Chauncey Billups	34	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-9	7	14.0	15.4	-1.39	20.6	17.9	2.71
Arron Afflalo	33	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-7	3	14.7	14.9	-0.21	18.7	19.2	-0.44
Anthony Carter	32	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-5	-1	15.4	14.5	0.89	17.9	19.6	-1.68
Kenyon Martin	72	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.16	-5	-6	1	14.4	17.3	-2.89	18.8	20.2	-1.48
Ty Lawson	32	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-8	5	16.3	14.0	2.30	17.9	19.7	-1.78
J.R. Smith	51	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-4	-3	14.9	14.7	0.21	19.2	18.7	0.44
Carmelo Anthony	70	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	0	-11	14.4	17.4	-3.00	19.2	17.9	1.25
Nene	61	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.09	-19	8	-27	15.1	14.1	1.00	19.2	18.4	0.76

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	38	38	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.24	13	-2	15	18.9	19.1	-0.19	14.1	15.5	-1.47
Jerryd Bayless	53	53	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	0	11	18.8	19.2	-0.33	14.4	15.7	-1.30
Brandon Roy	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-3	17	19.1	17.8	1.33	15.1	12.9	2.22
LaMarcus Aldridge	82	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	1	9	18.8	22.5	-3.70	14.7	17.6	-2.92
Juwan Howard	53	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	2	7	19.2	18.6	0.65	15.5	13.9	1.51
Jeff Ayres	37	37	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	10	-9	19.0	19.0	0.04	14.8	14.9	-0.18
Martell Webster	46	45	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	9	-7	18.2	19.8	-1.63	14.5	15.3	-0.75
Andre Miller	45	43	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	16	-21	19.7	18.1	1.59	15.8	13.9	1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 82, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.9,0.98,1	93.9%
MIL 104, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.5%
SAC 85, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%