NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	94		Excitement	7.3 [339]		MVP	Troy Murphy (IND): +27.6%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	7.6 [597]		LVP	Luther Head (IND): -22.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.28	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.13	0.15	0.01	17	63%	0.28	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.05	0.01	7	94%	0.22	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Solomon Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Earl Watson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.02	13	60%	0.04	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	8	30%	-0.04	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Dahntay Jones	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.08	0.03	8	38%	-0.11	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.01
Luther Head	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.16	-0.01	9	37%	-0.06	3	-0.17	1	100%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	14	62%	0.17	1	-0.01	9	100%	0.06
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.13	-0.01	15	49%	0.15	2	-0.02	13	92%	0.06
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.00	7	71%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	63%	0.12	5	-0.14	8	87%	0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	14	44%	-0.05	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	31.4	15.4	29.6	1.8	34.0	140.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -34.0%

BOS +31.9%

BOS +6.2%

BOS +42.1%

BOS +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	BOS	NBA	IND	BOS	NBA
this game	15.0	15.7	15.3	100.0	109.6	106.0
season	14.2	15.5		102.2	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.1		102.1	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.3	13.9	16.0	15.7	15.0
BOS	13.9	18.8	14.0	16.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	38	38	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-11	13	14.8	15.1	-0.36	15.5	15.8	-0.27
Tyler Hansbrough	40	38	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-13	17	16.3	14.0	2.34	15.1	16.0	-0.89
T.J. Ford	25	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	-4	-1	14.2	15.3	-1.12	15.4	15.7	-0.30
Solomon Jones	6	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-4	-1	19.7	14.7	5.01	15.5	15.7	-0.17
Luther Head	39	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-4	-1	15.4	14.7	0.78	15.5	15.8	-0.29
Dahntay Jones	66	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-7	5	14.6	15.9	-1.25	16.1	14.4	1.71
Earl Watson	70	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-5	1	15.1	14.7	0.31	15.7	15.4	0.30
Troy Murphy	76	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	14.5	16.9	-2.43	16.1	13.5	2.67
Roy Hibbert	65	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	14.5	16.1	-1.58	15.6	15.9	-0.33
Brandon Rush	45	44	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.14	-15	6	-21	15.3	14.7	0.64	15.0	16.2	-1.24

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	73	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-2	13	14.9	18.1	-3.20	14.9	15.4	-0.52
Paul Pierce	80	80	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.31	8	1	7	15.1	18.6	-3.51	14.6	17.1	-2.46
Kendrick Perkins	73	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	4	1	15.7	15.5	0.17	15.0	14.9	0.14
Rajon Rondo	82	81	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	2	5	15.3	18.1	-2.78	14.7	16.8	-2.17
Ray Allen	77	76	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	3	3	15.8	15.1	0.73	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Eddie House	25	27	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.08	5	4	1	16.7	15.3	1.39	15.4	14.8	0.65
Tony Allen	19	20	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.08	4	5	-1	17.0	15.3	1.68	16.9	14.5	2.44
Brian Scalabrine	41	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.07	-1	10	-11	17.1	14.5	2.55	15.8	14.3	1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.4,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.54,0.54,0.74,0.92,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, NOK 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.83,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.97,1	91.8%
PHX 104, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.74,0.84,0.95,1	91.1%
GSW 74, PHX 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.8,0.91,1	91.0%