NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	94		Excitement	6.9 [462]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOK): +49.9%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	106		Comeback	5.2 [153]		LVP	Yao Ming (HOU): -24.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.09	0.01	20	63%	0.26	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.06
Luther Head	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.09	-0.05	15	50%	0.20	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	10	60%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.24,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	0.00	22	35%	-0.17	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.29,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.5	0.50	0.25	0.28	0.03	15	82%	0.50	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
David West	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.12	0.02	16	62%	0.23	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.07	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	17	54%	0.08	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	6	64%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	43%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.6	25.0	15.0	26.4	1.0	30.0	121.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOK +5.1%

NOK +22.9%

NOK +25.3%

HOU -6.0%

NOK +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NOK	NBA	HOU	NOK	NBA
this game	15.8	17.0	15.4	106.8	120.5	104.5
season	15.6	16.0		103.6	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		104.4	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.5	16.1	14.8	15.7	15.8
NOK	17.8	19.1	15.2	16.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	19	18	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.06	1	-13	14	13.5	16.4	-2.92	17.8	16.7	1.09
Kirk Snyder	20	20	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-13	14	17.0	15.4	1.67	19.5	16.2	3.28
Juwan Howard	39	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-7	2	15.3	16.1	-0.77	17.8	16.4	1.36
Charles Hayes	46	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-9	6	16.2	15.3	0.96	16.6	17.4	-0.84
Rafer Alston	66	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-4	-4	15.3	17.3	-2.02	16.6	18.1	-1.48
Shane Battier	62	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-11	-1	-10	16.6	13.7	2.99	17.3	16.1	1.21
Luther Head	53	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-1	-10	15.1	16.8	-1.72	16.8	17.2	-0.34
Yao Ming	67	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	-1	-10	16.6	13.2	3.38	16.7	17.8	-1.14
Tracy McGrady	68	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	1	-14	15.4	17.0	-1.67	16.2	19.5	-3.28

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	61	62	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.04	21	-9	30	16.3	18.4	-2.13	15.1	17.4	-2.30
Chris Paul	66	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	4	4	16.6	18.0	-1.44	15.9	15.4	0.53
David West	69	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	1	10	16.9	17.1	-0.18	16.2	14.0	2.25
Tyson Chandler	68	67	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	5	2	16.8	17.4	-0.56	16.1	14.5	1.63
Desmond Mason	70	69	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	5	2	16.5	18.8	-2.28	15.8	15.5	0.37
Marc Jackson	27	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	9	-6	16.4	17.2	-0.86	13.6	16.7	-3.13
Devin Brown	42	42	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	12	-12	18.2	15.8	2.34	16.2	15.3	0.87
Hilton Armstrong	12	13	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.07	3	9	-6	19.2	16.6	2.64	15.7	15.8	-0.08
Jannero Pargo	25	25	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	12	-12	18.8	16.3	2.51	16.1	15.6	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.83,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, HOU 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.53,0.7,0.9,0.96,1	92.5%
MIL 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	92.1%
UTA 84, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.61,0.63,0.97,0.98,1	92.0%