NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	7.6 [282]		MVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): +22.3%
Houston Rockets	106		Comeback	6.0 [385]		LVP	Yao Ming (HOU): -21.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.09	0.01	11	92%	0.29	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	14	46%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.00	16	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	11	59%	0.01	2	-0.06	12	83%	0.04
Andre Miller	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19	-0.05	-0.13	0.01	12	48%	-0.10	2	-0.09	5	80%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	-0.00	17	61%	0.31	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	-0.00	10	68%	0.23	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.07
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.07	0.07	0.03	-0.00	-0.04	19	65%	0.22	4	-0.14	13	85%	0.07
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.00	8	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	3	58%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Bostjan Nachbar	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	0.01	14	37%	-0.13	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	30.2	16.0	27.0	1.5	45.0	143.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +39.2%

HOU +21.1%

DEN -2.4%

DEN -11.0%

HOU +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	15.7	109.6	114.0	100.5
season	14.9	16.5		101.6	98.8
opponent	15.6	15.4		97.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	14.4	15.8	15.9	15.2
HOU	16.7	16.9	14.2	14.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	30	29	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.08	10	-13	23	15.0	15.3	-0.36	18.8	14.2	4.60
Voshon Lenard	30	30	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-7	11	15.5	15.1	0.47	16.9	15.0	1.88
Michael Doleac	12	13	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-5	7	14.6	15.3	-0.72	16.4	15.5	0.92
Nene	74	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.34	2	-5	7	15.3	15.0	0.27	15.4	16.5	-1.17
Rodney White	42	43	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	1	-5	16.0	14.6	1.42	15.7	15.5	0.28
Carmelo Anthony	85	82	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.42	-3	0	-3	15.3	14.7	0.60	15.5	16.5	-0.98
Jon Barry	51	49	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	7	-17	14.6	16.0	-1.41	14.8	16.5	-1.68
Marcus Camby	75	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	5	-13	15.4	14.6	0.73	15.2	17.2	-2.01
Andre Miller	71	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	5	-13	15.0	15.9	-0.87	14.8	17.8	-2.97

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	84	85	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-5	13	15.1	20.3	-5.25	15.5	12.9	2.57
Jim Jackson	84	86	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-4	11	15.3	18.2	-2.91	15.3	13.7	1.60
Cuttino Mobley	85	86	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-2	7	15.3	18.2	-2.91	15.2	15.0	0.23
Maurice Taylor	51	52	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	-1	5	16.5	14.5	2.08	15.7	14.6	1.03
Yao Ming	69	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.41	-4	7	-11	15.7	15.3	0.35	15.4	14.8	0.51
Kelvin Cato	47	48	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	-2	7	15.2	16.0	-0.85	15.5	15.0	0.50
Bostjan Nachbar	2	3	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	5	-7	1.0	15.9	-14.91	7.7	15.5	-7.79
Clar. Weatherspoon	11	9	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	3	-3	16.5	15.5	0.98	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Scott Padgett	6	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.04	1	2	-1	13.2	15.8	-2.59	14.4	15.3	-0.85
Eric Piatkowski	11	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	7	-11	20.1	15.0	5.10	14.7	15.3	-0.57
Mark Jackson	15	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	8	-13	18.1	15.1	3.03	12.6	15.7	-3.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.53,0.7,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, NOK 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.83,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.97,1	92.5%
UTA 84, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.61,0.63,0.97,0.98,1	92.5%
POR 79, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.55,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.69,0.63,0.94,0.99,1	91.9%