NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	80		Excitement	6.6 [472]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +15.8%
Dallas Mavericks	75		Comeback	1.8 [371]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -12.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.08	0.07	-0.01	24	60%	0.21	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.00	0.10	-0.01	8	45%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	12	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	9	11%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.00	-0.00	11	37%	-0.01	4	-0.12	10	40%	-0.08

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.1,0	0.00	0.07	-0.07	0.00	24	55%	0.12	2	-0.12	10	80%	0.04
Rodrigue Beaubois	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	16	47%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	5	25%	-0.08	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	36%	0.00	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.7	31.3	16.4	27.4	2.5	36.9	140.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -0.6%

DAL -2.5%

ATL +30.1%

ATL +21.7%

ATL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DAL	NBA	ATL	DAL	NBA
this game	17.8	15.3	15.3	92.0	86.2	106.0
season	16.0	15.2		109.4	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.8		104.6	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.3	16.1	17.9	23.0	17.8
DAL	14.7	14.5	16.4	16.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	52	52	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.43	7	-2	9	19.1	15.7	3.37	16.0	14.3	1.72
Joe Johnson	79	81	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-1	7	17.7	18.4	-0.68	15.1	18.3	-3.21
Al Horford	69	71	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	0	5	16.9	21.1	-4.23	15.4	15.2	0.19
Joe Smith	32	30	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	1	3	21.1	15.8	5.32	15.4	15.3	0.08
Marvin Williams	67	69	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	-1	7	17.5	18.6	-1.16	14.9	16.9	-2.02
Josh Smith	47	49	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.12	2	3	-1	17.4	18.1	-0.72	16.0	14.5	1.50
Maurice Evans	15	13	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.06	-1	6	-7	18.1	17.7	0.37	15.8	15.3	0.59
Jeff Teague	8	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	6	-7	18.4	17.7	0.68	18.3	15.1	3.21
Mike Bibby	40	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	5	-5	16.3	19.0	-2.65	15.0	15.6	-0.64
Zaza Pachulia	26	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	16.5	18.3	-1.74	13.8	15.9	-2.09

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	57	55	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.15	6	-11	17	14.8	16.3	-1.46	18.1	17.2	0.80
Rodrigue Beaubois	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-3	1	1.0	15.5	-14.51	0.0	17.8	-17.76
Shawn Marion	57	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.33	4	-9	13	15.3	15.4	-0.03	18.6	16.2	2.43
Jason Kidd	71	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.28	1	-6	7	15.3	15.6	-0.27	17.7	18.0	-0.30
Jose Juan Barea	32	31	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.02	-9	4	-13	15.4	15.3	0.15	17.2	18.1	-0.83
Dirk Nowitzki	79	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-8	11	15.5	13.6	1.89	17.8	17.8	-0.08
Drew Gooden	28	28	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	4	-13	16.1	15.0	1.12	17.5	17.9	-0.33
Jason Terry	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	15.2	16.3	-1.11	17.8	17.5	0.31
Tim Thomas	38	40	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.14	-15	10	-25	15.9	14.9	1.07	16.7	18.6	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.22,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 96, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.23,0.16,0	93.4%
CHI 95, WAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	92.8%
SAS 88, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0,0	92.8%