NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	6.7 [455]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +13.4%
Washington Wizards	87		Comeback	1.8 [758]		LVP	Brad Miller (CHI): -16.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	8	78%	0.19	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.01	13	54%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	19	57%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Joakim Noah	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Ronald Murray	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	11	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Brad Miller	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	9	10%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	11	50%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.03	14	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	14	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Andray Blatche	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	20	40%	-0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	31.2	15.7	27.3	2.6	29.5	131.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +42.3%

WAS -4.9%

WAS -1.2%

CHI +9.4%

CHI +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	14.7	16.8	15.3	105.6	93.5	106.0
season	14.7	15.7		101.9	102.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	12.8	14.0	17.0	14.7
WAS	17.5	16.6	16.5	16.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	52	51	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-8	24	16.0	12.8	3.25	16.0	17.7	-1.67
Ronald Murray	47	48	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	0	8	16.4	12.8	3.64	16.1	17.5	-1.47
Hakim Warrick	24	24	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	3	2	14.7	14.7	0.06	17.3	16.6	0.75
Joakim Noah	49	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	9	-10	14.6	14.7	-0.07	16.7	16.9	-0.23
Derrick Rose	76	79	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	8	-8	14.8	14.1	0.62	16.5	18.1	-1.53
Taj Gibson	65	67	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.11	3	5	-2	14.7	14.7	-0.02	16.4	17.7	-1.27
Kirk Hinrich	63	65	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	3	2	13.4	17.5	-4.07	18.0	14.0	4.02
Brad Miller	42	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	-1	10	14.7	14.6	0.04	17.1	16.5	0.68
James Johnson	32	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	13	-18	12.1	16.1	-4.04	17.1	16.6	0.55

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quinton Ross	10	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-6	4	11.9	17.4	-5.46	15.0	14.6	0.37
James Singleton	34	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-8	8	17.8	16.2	1.65	15.6	14.1	1.58
Shaun Livingston	77	73	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-6	4	16.4	18.4	-2.01	14.5	15.3	-0.77
Fabricio Oberto	33	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-5	2	17.4	16.4	0.96	13.3	15.3	-2.00
JaVale McGee	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	-2	-4	15.4	17.9	-2.45	14.9	14.5	0.45
Cartier Martin	28	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	0	-8	18.4	16.1	2.37	14.3	14.8	-0.58
Earl Boykins	16	17	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-2	-4	18.4	16.4	2.01	15.3	14.5	0.77
Nick Young	67	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-2	-6	4	17.1	16.0	1.13	14.6	14.7	-0.11
Mike Miller	81	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-4	0	16.5	18.3	-1.79	14.8	13.8	0.96
Andray Blatche	77	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-1	-6	16.8	16.7	0.03	14.6	14.9	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 104, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.04,0.02,0	94.1%
LAC 82, MEM 72	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.54,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.01,0	93.4%
ATL 84, DEN 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.14,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.2%