NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	4.3 [931]		MVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): +18.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	100		Comeback	1.0 [367]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -14.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.02	15	64%	0.21	2	-0.03	12	92%	0.03
Quentin Richardson	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.01	15	67%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	12	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	18	51%	0.06	3	-0.07	7	57%	0.01
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.02	8	78%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.09	3	-0.05	12	83%	0.03
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.06	6	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	13	38%	0.00	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Martell Webster	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	14	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	0.05	25	45%	-0.09	3	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.0	31.1	15.7	28.2	2.3	33.7	139.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.9%

MIA +7.7%

POR -13.6%

POR -0.5%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	16.4	16.2	15.3	120.2	113.6	106.0
season	16.2	16.7		104.4	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.4		106.3	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	16.5	17.8	16.5	16.4
POR	17.2	15.5	18.2	14.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	69	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-3	13	15.9	17.9	-1.99	16.3	15.7	0.63
Quentin Richardson	72	73	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.32	6	1	5	16.4	16.1	0.37	16.5	14.8	1.67
Michael Beasley	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	2	3	17.6	12.6	5.01	16.5	15.3	1.15
James Jones	49	46	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	17.1	15.4	1.74	16.5	15.9	0.58
Joel Anthony	17	15	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	1	5	16.0	16.4	-0.44	16.9	16.0	0.83
Udonis Haslem	41	40	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	3	1	15.5	17.1	-1.53	15.5	16.7	-1.25
Jermaine O'Neal	53	55	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.22	-1	8	-9	15.5	17.6	-2.01	16.1	16.2	-0.10
Mario Chalmers	40	42	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.10	0	7	-7	15.4	17.1	-1.74	15.9	16.5	-0.58
Dorell Wright	17	15	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	6	-5	16.1	16.4	-0.37	14.8	16.5	-1.67
Carlos Arroyo	20	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	10	-13	17.9	15.9	1.99	15.7	16.3	-0.63

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	6	6	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-7	7	14.2	16.3	-2.16	19.5	16.1	3.37
Rudy Fernandez	32	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-4	1	16.6	15.9	0.70	16.2	16.4	-0.22
Joel Przybilla	25	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-3	-1	16.7	16.0	0.70	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Greg Oden	55	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-11	15	16.0	16.5	-0.53	16.6	15.9	0.71
Steve Blake	47	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-9	11	15.7	16.8	-1.08	16.1	16.7	-0.63
Dante Cunningham	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	6	-19	18.1	15.1	3.01	16.2	16.4	-0.19
Juwan Howard	48	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	2	-11	16.0	16.3	-0.31	16.6	16.1	0.43
Andre Miller	59	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-4	1	15.5	17.5	-1.99	16.1	16.9	-0.80
Martell Webster	56	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	0	-7	16.0	16.5	-0.45	16.4	16.2	0.22
Brandon Roy	79	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-5	3	16.3	14.8	1.56	16.3	17.2	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.36,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 120, LAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.33,0.23,0.32,0.21,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
CLE 120, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
IND 108, NJN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%