NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	89		Excitement	2.3 [1266]		MVP	Jeff Green (OKC): +12.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Comeback	1.0 [1169]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -7.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.00	-0.04	19	52%	0.11	1	-0.01	14	100%	0.05
Jon Brockman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	4	69%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Donte Greene	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.11	10	68%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	-0.00	-0.07	15	31%	-0.05	3	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.00	0.05	13	86%	0.15	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.00	-0.04	10	65%	0.10	3	-0.01	11	73%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.00	-0.04	24	47%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	2	125%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.0	35.0	14.0	24.2	2.4	28.2	130.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +45.5%

SAC -2.4%

OKC +1.8%

OKC +5.5%

SAC -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	OKC	NBA	SAC	OKC	NBA
this game	14.9	16.8	15.3	96.7	113.3	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		103.7	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.0		103.1	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.3	15.7	14.1	13.2	14.9
OKC	14.3	15.6	17.2	20.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	10	10	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-16	19	16.1	14.7	1.38	17.2	16.7	0.45
Donte Greene	7	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-13	13	12.7	15.0	-2.33	19.3	16.6	2.71
Sergio Rodriguez	27	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-20	27	13.4	15.5	-2.02	16.6	16.9	-0.33
Omri Casspi	37	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.38	10	-23	33	13.2	16.0	-2.86	17.2	16.6	0.61
Andres Nocioni	45	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.30	5	-18	23	13.1	16.6	-3.44	18.1	15.5	2.57
Sean May	33	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-1	-11	18.1	13.1	5.07	14.6	18.0	-3.38
Desmond Mason	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	5	-23	17.4	13.4	3.98	14.1	18.4	-4.28
Jason Thompson	56	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	0	-13	15.1	14.5	0.61	17.8	15.1	2.70
Spencer Hawes	69	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-5	-3	13.6	18.6	-4.93	17.7	14.5	3.19
Tyreke Evans	65	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.18	-20	7	-27	15.5	13.4	2.02	16.9	16.6	0.33
Kevin Martin	78	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.05	-19	6	-25	15.2	13.1	2.12	16.2	20.5	-4.27

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	79	80	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.04	17	-4	21	16.5	18.6	-2.09	15.0	13.7	1.29
Russell Westbrook	65	66	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.22	23	-10	33	15.9	19.2	-3.32	15.9	12.3	3.62
Jeff Green	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.11	19	-6	25	16.3	19.3	-2.96	15.4	12.7	2.65
Nenad Krstic	56	56	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.13	19	-6	25	15.6	18.8	-3.20	15.9	13.3	2.62
Thabo Sefolosha	63	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	1	11	17.1	16.0	1.09	15.2	14.1	1.17
Nick Collison	28	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.25	-4	17	-21	18.0	16.3	1.74	14.0	15.3	-1.31
James Harden	25	27	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.27	-5	18	-23	16.9	16.8	0.17	13.1	15.6	-2.44
Etan Thomas	34	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.25	-6	19	-25	18.8	15.6	3.20	13.3	15.9	-2.62
Kevin Ollie	25	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.35	-10	23	-33	19.2	15.9	3.32	12.3	15.9	-3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 75, DET 107	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
IND 90, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.76,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
GSW 91, POR 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%