NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	109		Excitement	6.7 [448]		MVP	Earl Watson (IND): +21.7%
Atlanta Hawks	120		Comeback	2.0 [856]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -14.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Watson	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.08	0.02	8	100%	0.29	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.18	-0.05	0.02	18	70%	0.18	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Jeff Foster	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	9	78%	0.12	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	9	63%	0.15	6	-0.15	9	100%	0.06
Brandon Rush	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	9	15%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	6	50%	-0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.05	0.00	5	92%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	17	65%	0.16	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	7	71%	0.16	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	64%	0.09	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	43%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.07	0.04	21	54%	0.11	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.03	0.04	10	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.04
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	45%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	2.7	32.7	15.0	30.1	1.8	32.2	145.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +3.7%

IND -2.7%

IND -0.2%

ATL +49.6%

IND -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ATL	NBA	IND	ATL	NBA
this game	13.3	14.8	15.3	106.9	116.5	106.0
season	14.2	16.0		102.2	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.1		106.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	10.9	14.2	14.2	14.4	13.3
ATL	14.8	14.6	13.5	16.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	31	33	0.31	-0.81	1.11	-0.05	12	-23	35	13.3	13.4	-0.11	16.5	13.9	2.59
Jeff Foster	33	37	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.00	2	-13	15	11.6	14.1	-2.51	14.7	14.8	-0.13
Solomon Jones	40	39	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-14	17	12.0	14.2	-2.15	14.8	14.7	0.06
T.J. Ford	52	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-4	-3	13.5	13.1	0.38	13.9	15.6	-1.62
Earl Watson	50	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-7	3	13.1	13.5	-0.38	15.6	13.9	1.62
Brandon Rush	41	42	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	0	-11	14.0	12.9	1.16	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Dahntay Jones	57	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-7	3	13.2	13.4	-0.20	15.1	14.4	0.65
Troy Murphy	79	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.9	11.4	2.51	14.7	14.9	-0.21
Roy Hibbert	52	52	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.11	-16	5	-21	14.6	12.1	2.50	14.9	14.6	0.22
Danny Granger	75	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	8	-27	13.1	14.1	-1.06	14.1	16.6	-2.59

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	76	77	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.18	23	-12	35	14.5	15.5	-1.03	13.1	14.1	-1.04
Joe Johnson	85	83	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.13	17	-6	23	14.6	15.7	-1.10	13.6	12.3	1.32
Al Horford	71	72	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.18	15	-4	19	14.6	15.0	-0.35	13.8	12.2	1.65
Mike Bibby	66	67	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.11	16	-5	21	14.6	15.0	-0.42	13.4	13.2	0.20
Marvin Williams	65	67	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-1	13	14.6	14.9	-0.30	13.9	12.2	1.77
Jamal Crawford	29	29	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	10	-9	14.8	14.8	0.00	12.5	13.7	-1.19
Maurice Evans	34	32	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.03	-5	16	-21	15.0	14.6	0.41	12.4	13.8	-1.35
Zaza Pachulia	37	34	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	18	-25	15.1	14.6	0.55	12.2	13.9	-1.69
Jeff Teague	30	28	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.04	-8	19	-27	15.6	14.4	1.14	12.9	13.5	-0.56
Joe Smith	22	21	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.04	-9	20	-29	15.5	14.6	0.89	14.4	13.0	1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.5,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.79,0.81,0.93,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.93,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.95,1	93.5%
BOS 96, IND 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.66,0.78,0.86,0.77,0.65,0.69,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.2%
POR 89, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	92.8%