NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	95		Excitement	5.7 [658]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +12.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	89		Comeback	2.7 [176]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (CLE): -15.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12	0.08	0.08	0.04	13	64%	0.16	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.07
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	7	60%	0.11	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Eddie House	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	8	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	16	43%	-0.01	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.14	-0.05	0.03	22	67%	0.22	5	-0.16	13	77%	-0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	41%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	55%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	29%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.11	0.00	11	42%	-0.09	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	3.6	38.2	19.7	32.0	3.5	41.5	164.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +27.2%

BOS +3.7%

BOS +12.1%

BOS +11.0%

CLE -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	15.0	16.3	15.3	103.3	96.7	106.0
season	15.5	16.1		105.7	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.7		103.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.6	16.2	14.8	15.5	15.0
CLE	17.0	18.9	16.5	13.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	81	80	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	2	2	15.4	12.3	3.10	16.3	16.2	0.06
Rasheed Wallace	46	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-4	14	14.9	15.1	-0.17	15.5	17.2	-1.70
Marquis Daniels	34	32	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	-6	18	15.5	14.7	0.79	17.0	15.9	1.02
Paul Pierce	74	76	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	5	-4	14.1	18.6	-4.49	15.8	18.5	-2.66
Kevin Garnett	66	67	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	10	-14	14.4	16.6	-2.20	15.9	17.5	-1.67
Rajon Rondo	68	70	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.31	-3	9	-12	14.4	16.7	-2.37	16.0	17.3	-1.33
Shelden Williams	22	22	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	-1	8	16.1	14.7	1.43	17.4	16.0	1.39
Eddie House	22	20	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	1	4	17.0	14.4	2.57	16.9	16.1	0.82
Kendrick Perkins	47	47	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	8	-10	15.8	14.2	1.65	17.8	14.8	2.99

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gibson	27	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-2	-2	13.8	17.3	-3.52	14.9	15.0	-0.10
JJ Hickson	13	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-2	-2	17.5	16.1	1.44	13.8	15.2	-1.34
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	48	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-4	2	16.1	16.5	-0.33	15.4	14.6	0.78
Jamario Moon	25	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.05	-9	3	-12	16.2	16.3	-0.14	15.6	14.8	0.82
Anthony Parker	78	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-9	12	16.4	15.9	0.53	15.0	15.0	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	53	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.37	2	-8	10	16.5	16.0	0.57	15.6	14.1	1.54
Anderson Varejao	61	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	0	-6	16.8	15.3	1.48	14.9	15.1	-0.20
LeBron James	87	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-6	6	16.4	14.8	1.59	14.8	18.5	-3.74
Mo Williams	68	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	4	-14	16.4	16.1	0.24	14.6	16.2	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 112, OKC 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
NJN 88, PHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
UTA 108, TOR 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.07,0,0,0	93.3%