NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	5.8 [674]		MVP	Ike Diogu (SAC): +24.1%
Denver Nuggets	118		Comeback	2.6 [1157]		LVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): -17.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Diogu	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.18	0.07	0.01	20	68%	0.29	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Cedric Simmons	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.05	16	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	16	41%	-0.04	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.45	0.01	0.22	22	87%	0.24	0	0.00	8	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.05	0.00	7	85%	0.21	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.08	0.01	18	46%	0.11	2	-0.06	10	70%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	11	46%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	7	31%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	4	0%	-0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.5	29.4	18.8	24.2	2.4	33.2	136.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +2.3%

DEN +17.1%

DEN +8.8%

DEN +21.7%

DEN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	17.0	13.3	15.5	104.3	122.9	106.4
season	15.0	14.4		104.0	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.2	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.9	19.9	18.5	16.5	17.0
DEN	14.3	14.4	11.8	13.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	14	13	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-25	30	14.3	17.5	-3.20	14.5	13.2	1.29
Cedric Simmons	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-15	10	15.5	17.1	-1.61	10.5	13.5	-3.03
Rashad McCants	21	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-16	12	17.2	16.9	0.29	15.4	12.7	2.68
Andres Nocioni	61	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-10	0	18.5	14.2	4.27	13.3	13.4	-0.05
Bobby Jackson	75	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.09	-14	-6	-8	16.8	17.8	-0.98	13.1	14.5	-1.47
Jason Thompson	80	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-14	8	16.3	21.3	-5.02	13.4	13.2	0.15
Donte Greene	44	43	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	-1	-18	16.5	17.5	-1.00	13.2	13.5	-0.29
Francisco Garcia	92	93	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.11	-22	2	-24	17.1	12.0	5.12	13.1	21.0	-7.90
Ike Diogu	77	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.12	-25	5	-30	17.5	14.7	2.81	13.4	12.8	0.64

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	46	44	0.78	-0.28	1.06	-0.16	32	-12	44	12.3	14.3	-2.00	18.5	15.7	2.89
Chris Andersen	51	49	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.19	25	-5	30	13.2	13.5	-0.32	18.1	15.8	2.24
Anthony Carter	35	36	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.07	19	1	18	13.4	13.3	0.09	18.8	15.9	2.91
J.R. Smith	58	57	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.21	23	-3	26	13.4	13.2	0.18	17.5	16.2	1.27
Nene	67	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	10	0	13.1	13.9	-0.74	17.0	17.1	-0.14
Chauncey Billups	70	67	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	15	-10	13.6	12.7	0.84	15.9	19.8	-3.93
Carmelo Anthony	65	64	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	24	-28	13.7	12.5	1.22	16.5	18.1	-1.55
Dahntay Jones	29	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.14	-7	27	-34	12.6	13.7	-1.09	16.4	17.3	-0.88
Kenyon Martin	59	59	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	23	-26	14.1	12.1	1.97	15.6	19.5	-3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.83,0.85,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 88, GSW 98	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
SEA 99, NOK 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.91,1	93.3%
TOR 105, HOU 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%