NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	105		Excitement	5.8 [678]		MVP	Chase Budinger (HOU): +21.6%
Houston Rockets	114		Comeback	3.4 [771]		LVP	Joey Dorsey (TOR): -23.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.10	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.21	0.01	0.13	21	66%	0.12	1	-0.02	14	93%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	13	61%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	47%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	21	39%	-0.07	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.07	-0.00	8	17%	-0.15	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.19	0.04	0.01	10	96%	0.22	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	12	61%	0.13	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	9	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	11	48%	0.07	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	-0.02	-0.07	10	24%	-0.00	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	0.04	9	30%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	29.0	15.4	26.0	1.8	34.0	133.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +60.1%

TOR -3.4%

TOR -9.4%

HOU +2.2%

HOU +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	13.2	15.1	15.5	105.0	110.7	105.7
season	15.1	15.2		104.7	109.5
opponent	14.9	15.5		107.5	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	11.8	16.4	14.8	10.4	13.2
HOU	14.8	14.3	15.2	16.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	16	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	-1	-7	16.7	12.5	4.23	12.2	15.7	-3.56
Jose Calderon	77	80	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.29	3	-12	15	12.3	16.1	-3.81	15.9	12.6	3.32
Julian Wright	26	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-4	-1	12.2	13.5	-1.31	15.0	15.2	-0.19
Linas Kleiza	92	95	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.28	2	-11	13	13.3	11.5	1.85	15.3	13.4	1.92
Ed Davis	48	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	2	-13	13.3	13.1	0.18	13.8	16.2	-2.42
Joey Dorsey	52	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-2	-5	15.3	11.0	4.31	15.1	15.2	-0.20
Leandro Barbosa	74	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-6	3	11.6	17.6	-5.97	15.4	14.4	1.07
Amir Johnson	48	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-7	5	12.5	13.8	-1.35	15.7	14.5	1.18
DeMar DeRozan	67	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.09	-14	5	-19	14.1	11.4	2.65	15.1	15.3	-0.22

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	50	51	0.77	-0.27	1.04	-0.02	27	-18	45	14.5	15.7	-1.22	14.3	12.1	2.15
Courtney Lee	49	48	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.08	22	-13	35	14.6	15.6	-1.06	13.7	12.7	1.02
Aaron Brooks	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-2	13	14.7	15.7	-0.97	13.1	13.3	-0.27
Patrick Patterson	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-2	13	14.7	15.7	-0.97	13.1	13.3	-0.27
Brad Miller	49	49	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-1	11	14.8	15.5	-0.71	13.8	12.6	1.13
Luis Scola	54	51	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	10	-11	15.5	14.8	0.71	12.6	13.8	-1.13
Kyle Lowry	56	52	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	13	-17	16.2	13.9	2.26	12.4	14.0	-1.58
Jordan Hill	49	46	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.13	-2	11	-13	15.7	14.7	0.97	13.3	13.1	0.27
Kevin Martin	47	46	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.09	-11	20	-31	15.0	15.2	-0.23	13.7	12.8	0.84
Shane Battier	53	49	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.26	-18	27	-45	15.7	14.5	1.22	12.1	14.3	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 69, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
OKC 100, BOS 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.96,1	93.7%
POR 94, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%