NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	7.2 [391]		MVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): +27.9%
Charlotte Bobcats	92		Comeback	3.4 [192]		LVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (CHA): -23.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28	0.13	0.17	0.02	9	80%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27	0.11	0.16	-0.00	9	74%	0.27	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	-0.01	0.05	0.00	2	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Quinn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	21	51%	0.09	2	-0.05	11	64%	-0.07
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
James Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	12	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.04	-0.01	12	75%	0.27	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	57%	0.12	1	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	6	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	61%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.12,0.12,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	14	55%	0.06	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.08	-0.02	11	59%	0.06	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	6	7%	-0.16	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.6	28.3	15.0	25.2	2.5	36.3	133.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.3%

MIA +3.7%

CHA -18.3%

MIA +40.1%

CHA -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.3	15.5	107.8	101.1	106.4
season	16.0	16.5		105.9	103.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.5	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	14.7	17.6	14.0	15.5
CHA	13.6	18.7	15.9	17.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	52	51	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.31	18	-13	31	14.4	17.0	-2.62	17.2	15.2	1.98
Daequan Cook	63	63	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.15	19	-14	33	15.0	16.7	-1.76	16.8	15.1	1.73
Mario Chalmers	66	67	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.54	2	3	-1	15.3	16.0	-0.61	16.2	16.5	-0.32
Dwyane Wade	75	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.50	3	2	1	15.1	17.6	-2.51	15.4	20.4	-5.01
Jamaal Magloire	38	36	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-10	25	14.8	16.0	-1.16	16.5	16.2	0.32
Chris Quinn	9	10	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	2	1	15.9	15.5	0.42	20.5	15.8	4.71
Yakhouba Diawara	4	5	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	5	-5	17.2	15.4	1.82	15.0	16.4	-1.38
Jermaine O'Neal	43	46	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.27	-14	19	-33	16.3	14.8	1.47	16.9	15.7	1.14
James Jones	42	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.27	4	1	3	16.9	14.3	2.61	17.5	15.2	2.33
Udonis Haslem	43	44	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	14	-23	16.5	14.6	1.92	14.7	17.8	-3.10
Jamario Moon	15	15	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.21	-16	21	-37	16.4	15.3	1.07	12.5	17.1	-4.52

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cartier Martin	19	18	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.03	3	-8	11	16.1	16.4	-0.26	18.2	14.8	3.32
Raja Bell	39	40	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.05	4	-9	13	14.8	17.5	-2.69	15.1	15.9	-0.79
DeSagana Diop	21	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.14	-6	1	-7	21.0	14.9	6.10	16.1	15.3	0.77
Boris Diaw	74	73	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-10	15	15.7	18.9	-3.17	15.6	15.3	0.27
Emeka Okafor	65	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.54	6	-11	17	15.1	19.3	-4.15	15.7	15.0	0.66
Gerald Wallace	87	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-4	3	15.9	26.2	-10.40	15.5	15.6	-0.09
Vladimir Radmanovic	31	30	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	10	-25	18.8	15.0	3.74	15.6	15.4	0.18
Raymond Felton	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.52	0	-5	5	16.0	17.8	-1.79	15.4	16.2	-0.90
D.J. Augustin	45	44	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.29	-21	16	-37	18.0	14.7	3.26	14.4	16.6	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.74,0.69,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.15,0.32,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 117, GSW 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.38,0.57,0.42,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.45,0.16,0	91.4%
MIL 107, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.21,0.03,0,0	91.0%
TOR 89, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.09,0.27,0	90.7%