NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	107		Excitement	7.4 [352]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (MIL): +29.8%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	5.3 [170]		LVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): -15.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.11	0.19	0.00	8	83%	0.32	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
John Henson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	13	63%	0.20	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Brandon Jennings	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	13	58%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.07
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	6	64%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	61%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.10
Ekpe Udoh	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	5	50%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15	-0.02	-0.10	0.04	17	47%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	12	65%	0.22	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.14	-0.02	0.06	15	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.07	-0.01	19	48%	-0.02	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.03
Amir Johnson	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.02	16	61%	0.12	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	25%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.15	-0.03	-0.06	10	23%	-0.02	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.0	32.2	17.5	26.3	2.7	35.3	140.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +57.5%

TOR -7.0%

TOR -18.4%

MIL +17.2%

MIL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	17.5	15.4	118.9	105.5	104.1
season	14.7	16.1		101.6	104.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.9	11.2	15.8	15.1	14.3
TOR	16.8	17.1	20.2	16.2	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Sanders	53	53	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-2	15	13.5	15.5	-1.96	17.8	16.9	0.90
Monta Ellis	63	64	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	5	1	14.2	14.7	-0.53	17.4	17.7	-0.28
Mike Dunleavy	56	57	0.62	-0.12	0.73	-0.03	22	-11	33	14.6	13.9	0.68	17.1	18.1	-1.08
Brandon Jennings	62	62	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	5	1	13.6	15.9	-2.32	17.2	18.1	-0.88
Ersan Ilyasova	50	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	10	-9	12.9	16.1	-3.22	16.9	18.3	-1.42
John Henson	40	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	1	9	16.1	12.9	3.22	18.3	16.9	1.42
Beno Udrih	28	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.25	5	6	-1	15.9	13.6	2.32	18.1	17.2	0.88
Luc Mbah a Moute	34	34	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.21	-11	22	-33	13.9	14.6	-0.68	18.1	17.1	1.08
Marquis Daniels	27	27	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.27	5	6	-1	14.7	14.2	0.53	17.7	17.4	0.28
Ekpe Udoh	37	38	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.20	-2	13	-15	15.5	13.5	1.96	16.9	17.8	-0.90

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	67	67	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.27	11	-22	33	18.3	15.3	2.96	14.5	13.9	0.62
Terrence Ross	7	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	-2	-7	18.3	17.4	0.88	12.7	14.5	-1.76
Jose Calderon	58	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-13	15	17.5	17.4	0.08	14.1	14.8	-0.65
Kyle Lowry	33	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	2	-15	17.4	17.5	-0.08	14.8	14.1	0.65
DeMar DeRozan	69	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.40	3	-14	17	17.4	17.5	-0.10	14.8	12.8	2.05
Amir Johnson	84	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-5	-1	17.3	19.6	-2.27	14.8	10.2	4.57
Alan Anderson	55	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.08	-14	3	-17	16.7	18.6	-1.88	14.4	14.3	0.08
Landry Fields	58	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-2	-7	17.0	18.3	-1.26	13.6	15.6	-2.02
Quincy Acy	24	25	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.01	-20	9	-29	18.5	17.1	1.45	13.2	14.8	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.21,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.74,0.69,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.15,0.32,0.15,0	91.0%
PHX 111, HOU 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.61,0.45,0.23,0.01,0	90.7%
PHX 115, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.14,0.02,0.03,0.08,0	90.4%