NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	89		Excitement	7.8 [264]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +31.3%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	4.0 [106]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -39.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	16	75%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	71%	0.15	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Dion Glover	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05	0.01	-0.10	-0.04	10	59%	-0.07	2	0.01	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	5	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.19,-0.3	-0.06	-0.24	0.01	24	50%	0.00	4	-0.30	6	100%	0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.05	-0.01	12	58%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.01	9	67%	0.08	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	18	47%	-0.09	1	-0.01	13	69%	-0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.05	-0.03	16	29%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.29	-0.29	-0.08	-0.21	-0.00	8	32%	-0.16	1	-0.12	3	67%	-0.05
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.4	-0.40	0.04	-0.41	0.03	13	67%	-0.11	3	-0.29	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	27.2	15.5	21.4	2.4	36.3	127.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +56.9%

MIA -12.2%

MIA -15.4%

TOR +18.9%

TOR +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	18.6	15.7	15.7	107.2	101.2	100.5
season	16.8	16.2		94.8	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.8	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.5	17.5	20.8	17.9	18.6
MIA	13.6	16.8	17.1	15.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	37	38	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.23	18	-15	33	17.7	19.4	-1.69	17.1	14.6	2.53
Chris Bosh	63	64	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-3	9	19.0	17.5	1.43	16.9	12.1	4.76
Vince Carter	69	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-5	13	19.0	17.1	1.89	16.5	12.0	4.47
Roger Mason Jr.	44	45	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-9	21	17.8	19.5	-1.70	15.3	16.1	-0.74
Donyell Marshall	67	69	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	6	-9	18.6	18.6	0.02	15.2	17.6	-2.32
Jerome Moiso	31	32	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	1	1	18.0	19.0	-0.97	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Dion Glover	34	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.31	-9	12	-21	19.6	17.9	1.71	13.8	17.0	-3.21
Milt Palacio	44	44	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.47	-15	18	-33	19.3	17.8	1.49	15.3	16.1	-0.85
Morris Peterson	26	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	7	-11	17.8	19.0	-1.15	14.4	16.3	-1.92

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	72	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.44	9	-12	21	15.2	18.1	-2.83	19.1	16.6	2.49
Lamar Odom	72	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.47	10	-13	23	15.2	18.6	-3.46	18.7	18.2	0.48
Caron Butler	63	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	6	-15	16.1	14.4	1.72	18.5	18.9	-0.37
Rasual Butler	17	17	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	7	-17	15.9	15.6	0.32	17.8	18.8	-1.02
Eddie Jones	70	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.55	8	-11	19	15.8	15.1	0.67	18.8	17.9	0.86
Malik Allen	11	11	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	10	-23	17.8	15.4	2.45	17.0	18.9	-1.89
Rafer Alston	80	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.44	1	-4	5	15.4	20.2	-4.80	18.8	16.2	2.59
Udonis Haslem	40	41	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	8	-19	16.4	15.1	1.31	18.2	19.1	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.09,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 79, LAL 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.47,0.46,0.28,0.2,0.23,0.07,0.08,0	92.3%
BOS 92, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.16,0	91.9%
IND 91, NOP 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.53,0.32,0.21,0.14,0.09,0	91.7%