NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	117		Excitement	8.8 [124]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +55.1%
Golden State Warriors	109		Comeback	4.4 [332]		LVP	Chris Duhon (ORL): -4.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.55	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,0,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.55,0.55	0.10	0.47	0.02	21	56%	0.60	3	-0.05	39	54%	-0.23
JJ Redick	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.10	0.00	7	65%	0.19	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Von Wafer	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	5	80%	0.20	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	4	110%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.11	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.05	0.03	12	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Glen Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.46	0.46	0.09	0.31	-0.06	23	60%	0.53	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.34,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.00	8	87%	0.31	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	17	65%	0.20	5	-0.16	6	67%	-0.04
Charles Jenkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	13	45%	0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jeremy Tyler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	3.4	35.0	19.8	31.5	3.5	36.4	159.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -5.2%

ORL +26.1%

ORL +21.3%

ORL +6.1%

ORL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.0	14.9	15.6	120.6	113.5	102.8
season	16.2	15.2		102.8	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.8		106.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	12.7	15.5	16.2	15.0
GSW	14.9	15.0	15.2	14.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	88	87	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-4	16	14.8	16.3	-1.49	14.9	14.1	0.83
Jameer Nelson	65	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-3	14	15.6	13.8	1.79	15.7	13.2	2.56
Von Wafer	36	36	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	2	4	16.5	14.1	2.42	13.6	15.6	-2.09
JJ Redick	70	69	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-2	12	14.8	15.4	-0.54	14.5	15.7	-1.22
Ryan Anderson	45	45	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.01	13	-5	18	15.7	14.3	1.41	15.0	14.7	0.25
Hedo Turkoglu	74	73	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	4	0	14.8	15.4	-0.60	15.4	13.3	2.11
Earl Clark	3	2	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	5.7	15.3	-9.61	16.5	14.8	1.67
Chris Duhon	32	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	11	-14	13.8	15.6	-1.79	13.2	15.7	-2.56
Jason Richardson	42	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.06	-4	12	-16	14.6	15.2	-0.59	15.2	14.6	0.54
Glen Davis	30	30	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	17	-26	14.5	15.2	-0.65	15.0	14.8	0.25

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	29	29	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-12	16	15.8	14.5	1.28	14.2	15.3	-1.10
Andris Biedrins	38	38	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-12	16	15.6	14.4	1.14	17.3	13.5	3.75
Charles Jenkins	24	24	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-8	8	15.7	14.6	1.12	16.7	14.4	2.30
Jeremy Tyler	3	3	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-4	0	7.7	15.1	-7.43	6.7	15.2	-8.58
Brandon Rush	79	80	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-12	16	15.3	12.9	2.41	15.0	14.8	0.26
Monta Ellis	86	87	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-6	4	15.2	12.3	2.86	14.8	16.7	-1.92
Dominic McGuire	17	17	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.03	-13	5	-18	12.6	15.4	-2.77	14.5	15.1	-0.55
David Lee	82	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	1	-10	15.1	13.4	1.76	15.2	13.9	1.31
Nate Robinson	72	73	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	0	-8	14.6	15.7	-1.12	14.4	16.7	-2.30
Klay Thompson	50	51	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.18	-16	8	-24	13.4	16.4	-3.01	14.3	15.7	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.38,0.57,0.42,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.45,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.74,0.69,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.15,0.32,0.15,0	91.4%
DAL 91, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.51,0.41,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.08,0	91.2%
POR 88, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.28,0	90.7%