NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	8.5 [178]		MVP	Danny Granger (IND): +54.0%
Indiana Pacers	107		Comeback	13.2 [107]		LVP	Troy Murphy (IND): -22.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrus Thomas	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.09	0.12	-0.00	10	77%	0.30	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Brad Miller	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	11	58%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	21	56%	0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.07	0.01	6	79%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	13	67%	0.16	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.05
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.04	-0.13	0.07	-0.01	18	32%	0.05	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.54	0.54	0.15	0.40	0.00	19	70%	0.64	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.14,0.08,0.37	0.37	0.12	0.25	-0.01	15	69%	0.39	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	6	67%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	8	69%	0.08	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	9	45%	0.03	5	-0.17	4	100%	0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.18	0.00	14	44%	-0.17	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	31.3	15.6	23.1	2.5	37.2	135.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +19.8%

CHI -13.0%

IND +30.6%

IND +6.0%

IND +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	13.0	15.5	105.0	108.1	106.4
season	14.8	14.1		106.3	106.5
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.7	15.5	18.1	13.8	16.0
IND	11.5	13.3	13.2	13.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	61	61	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.14	2	-4	6	16.1	15.8	0.25	13.0	12.9	0.06
Brad Miller	78	79	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-6	10	15.2	18.6	-3.42	13.0	12.6	0.39
Joakim Noah	42	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.32	7	-9	16	16.8	15.4	1.41	12.6	13.2	-0.61
Kirk Hinrich	81	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-1	0	15.7	17.2	-1.53	13.4	11.0	2.40
Derrick Rose	82	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.49	0	-2	2	16.2	14.9	1.25	12.9	13.3	-0.46
Tyrus Thomas	66	66	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.44	-9	7	-16	15.6	16.6	-0.98	12.5	13.9	-1.47
Ben Gordon	90	88	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.47	-13	11	-24	16.5	11.4	5.08	13.1	12.0	1.08

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	76	75	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.52	6	-4	10	13.3	12.0	1.31	15.8	16.6	-0.79
Brandon Rush	75	77	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.53	5	-3	8	13.0	13.0	0.00	16.5	14.3	2.11
Troy Murphy	75	76	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.49	6	-4	10	12.9	13.1	-0.16	16.2	15.2	1.00
Jarrett Jack	90	92	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	-1	4	13.0	13.0	-0.04	16.2	13.9	2.28
T.J. Ford	82	82	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	2	-2	13.0	12.9	0.09	15.2	19.3	-4.10
Roy Hibbert	33	35	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	0	2	11.8	13.6	-1.80	18.0	14.9	3.17
Rasho Nesterovic	24	24	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	6	-10	13.1	12.9	0.16	15.2	16.2	-1.00
Josh McRoberts	40	39	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.22	-8	10	-18	13.3	12.7	0.66	14.7	16.8	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.31,0.24,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.37,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 105, MIL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.58,1	92.3%
BKN 99, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.23,0.29,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.21,0.34,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.14,0.58,1	90.8%
UTA 97, ATL 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.17,0.05,0.15,0.24,0.28,1	90.4%