NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	105		Excitement	8.1 [133]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +27.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	180.8 [4]		LVP	Michael Curry (MIL): -6.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.09	-0.01	9	100%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.21	-0.02	0.23	0.00	16	52%	0.30	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Tim Legler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.04	-0.01	18	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	10	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.01	16	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.09,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.08	0.04	12	83%	0.28	4	-0.14	6	100%	0.10
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,0.14	0.14	-0.13	0.25	-0.02	13	37%	0.21	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	0.00	9	84%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	8	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	8	72%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Haywoode Workman	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.00	9	71%	0.21	4	-0.14	3	100%	0.06
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.00	4	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.09
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.4	25.3	15.7	21.6	2.4	36.7	125.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.9%

MIL +40.2%

MIL +2.5%

WAS -17.7%

MIL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.6	15.8	114.1	118.9	99.6
season	15.5	15.8		98.8	102.4
opponent	16.4	15.9		100.9	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.6	16.1	16.7	15.8	16.0
MIL	14.3	16.6	16.8	14.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Legler	19	17	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.16	7	-9	16	16.7	15.8	0.83	16.1	15.5	0.61
Calbert Cheaney	37	37	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.18	14	-16	30	15.7	16.2	-0.53	18.2	13.8	4.40
Jeff McInnis	18	17	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.07	6	-8	14	17.1	15.8	1.35	19.0	14.8	4.16
Terry Davis	29	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-4	6	15.1	16.4	-1.29	14.6	16.1	-1.48
Tracy Murray	48	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-7	12	16.1	16.0	0.13	16.0	15.1	0.87
Ben Wallace	33	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-5	8	17.1	15.4	1.62	17.0	14.8	2.19
Rod Strickland	74	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	6	-14	15.8	17.1	-1.35	14.8	19.0	-4.16
Otis Thorpe	59	55	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.17	-18	16	-34	16.2	15.7	0.55	14.0	18.1	-4.12
Mitch Richmond	73	73	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.62	-8	6	-14	15.8	16.7	-0.83	15.5	16.1	-0.61
Juwan Howard	70	67	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.53	-13	11	-24	15.9	16.5	-0.69	15.0	17.5	-2.49

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywoode Workman	58	59	1.08	-0.58	1.66	0.58	17	-15	32	14.6	17.6	-3.01	15.4	17.2	-1.76
Ray Allen	67	69	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.49	13	-11	24	14.7	18.4	-3.78	15.6	17.4	-1.88
Glenn Robinson	71	73	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-4	10	14.9	18.2	-3.28	16.0	16.2	-0.24
Michael Curry	42	42	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.55	-1	3	-4	16.7	14.6	2.09	16.4	15.7	0.70
Dell Curry	42	45	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	-2	6	16.5	14.8	1.74	17.2	14.9	2.26
Ervin Johnson	39	38	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.31	-9	11	-20	17.9	13.9	3.97	16.1	16.0	0.14
Tim Thomas	36	37	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	3	-4	13.9	16.7	-2.80	14.7	16.9	-2.25
Robert Traylor	33	34	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	3	-4	13.8	16.7	-2.90	15.4	16.4	-1.06
Chris Gatling	30	30	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.23	-3	5	-8	17.7	14.6	3.07	17.3	15.4	1.85
Vinny Del Negro	32	33	-0.58	1.08	-1.66	-0.14	-15	17	-32	17.6	14.6	3.01	17.2	15.4	1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 105, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.31,0.24,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.37,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.42,1	92.3%
BOS 98, VAN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.58,1	90.1%
TOR 101, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.32,0.63,1	90.1%