NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	117		Excitement	6.5 [515]		MVP	John Salmons (CHI): +15.6%
Chicago Bulls	109		Comeback	7.5 [243]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -18.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.00	9	82%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jordan Farmar	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	10	65%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	11	59%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Luke Walton	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	4	56%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Sasha Vujacic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.02	0.04	17	55%	0.08	2	-0.08	8	62%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	25	47%	-0.03	3	-0.06	10	60%	-0.00
Josh Powell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.18	0.02	0.04	15	79%	0.20	3	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	13	52%	0.06	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Aaron Gray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.04	19	58%	0.12	4	-0.14	5	100%	0.03
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	4	62%	0.05	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.04
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	14	48%	0.02	7	-0.20	5	80%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.6	31.5	16.7	30.3	2.6	33.5	140.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +35.6%

CHI -10.7%

LAL +1.4%

LAL +33.6%

CHI -9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	CHI	NBA	LAL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.8	13.5	15.5	114.7	106.9	106.4
season	14.9	14.8		110.6	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		107.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.3	14.6	15.6	13.8	14.8
CHI	12.0	14.8	14.4	12.9	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Powell	31	32	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-5	18	13.8	15.2	-1.40	12.4	13.9	-1.52
Lamar Odom	83	84	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.18	15	-7	22	14.4	16.6	-2.27	14.2	10.1	4.06
Luke Walton	21	22	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-3	14	12.8	15.3	-2.55	14.1	13.3	0.87
Sasha Vujacic	43	42	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	2	4	13.6	15.6	-2.04	12.0	14.5	-2.55
Jordan Farmar	54	56	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.39	-1	9	-10	14.9	14.6	0.26	11.6	15.7	-4.09
Derek Fisher	48	46	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.12	9	-1	10	14.6	14.9	-0.26	15.7	11.6	4.09
Kobe Bryant	76	76	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	5	-2	15.5	12.7	2.76	13.2	14.0	-0.79
Shannon Brown	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	13	-18	11.5	14.8	-3.35	4.5	13.6	-9.13
DJ Mbenga	9	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	7	-6	17.6	14.5	3.04	17.9	13.1	4.80
Trevor Ariza	65	64	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	10	-12	15.4	13.8	1.61	14.4	11.9	2.48
Pau Gasol	78	78	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.11	-10	18	-28	15.4	12.7	2.66	12.9	15.1	-2.19

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	48	48	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.13	6	-14	20	11.9	14.8	-2.90	15.6	14.0	1.63
Aaron Gray	4	5	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.01	1	-9	10	1.2	13.9	-12.70	8.8	15.1	-6.29
Joakim Noah	63	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	2	-12	14.7	11.4	3.30	14.3	15.6	-1.30
John Salmons	89	90	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.23	-3	-5	2	13.4	13.8	-0.45	14.6	16.3	-1.76
Brad Miller	47	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-6	4	12.7	14.1	-1.43	16.7	13.0	3.68
Tyrus Thomas	87	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	0	-8	14.2	9.1	5.14	15.0	13.6	1.45
Derrick Rose	85	85	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.34	-10	2	-12	13.2	14.7	-1.51	14.4	16.6	-2.16
Ben Gordon	87	86	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.23	-14	6	-20	13.9	10.8	3.11	14.3	17.5	-3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.72,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.21,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 106, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.5%
PHX 101, NOK 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.81,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.81,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.41,0.25,0.17,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.4%
SEA 115, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.72,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.32,0.22,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.09,0,0	91.2%