NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	105		Excitement	8.5 [176]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +55.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	9.8 [357]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (POR): -5.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marquis Daniels	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.28	0.09	0.18	-0.01	19	62%	0.40	3	-0.13	7	71%	-0.06
Travis Diener	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	16	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	22	55%	0.14	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Maceo Baston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	55%	0.07	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Foster	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.16,0.55	0.55	0.07	0.49	0.01	19	61%	0.71	4	-0.15	8	100%	0.13
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	15	64%	0.20	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	17	51%	0.08	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	48%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.04
Steve Blake	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	43%	0.10	1	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	45%	-0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	30.2	14.8	25.5	2.0	38.0	137.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -22.8%

POR +64.4%

POR +5.5%

POR +3.9%

IND -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	POR	NBA	IND	POR	NBA
this game	14.7	16.6	15.5	112.9	117.6	106.4
season	14.1	16.7		106.5	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.3		105.8	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.9	14.1	13.8	15.2	14.7
POR	17.6	18.0	14.4	16.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	31	32	0.30	-0.80	1.10	-0.08	13	-15	28	12.7	15.7	-2.94	16.1	16.9	-0.77
Brandon Rush	32	31	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.38	-5	3	-8	16.8	13.6	3.27	16.4	16.7	-0.36
Maceo Baston	3	2	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	-1	0	12.3	14.8	-2.44	15.5	16.7	-1.15
Rasho Nesterovic	30	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	2	-6	15.8	14.2	1.63	17.4	16.2	1.15
Travis Diener	11	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	3	-8	15.6	14.6	1.06	12.3	17.2	-4.95
Jarrett Jack	77	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-3	4	13.8	18.9	-5.04	16.9	15.1	1.87
Marquis Daniels	85	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.55	5	-7	12	14.5	16.9	-2.38	16.3	20.2	-3.97
T.J. Ford	75	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.54	0	-2	2	14.6	15.2	-0.58	17.4	13.6	3.76
Troy Murphy	76	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	3	-8	14.7	14.5	0.28	16.7	16.4	0.26
Jeff Foster	45	43	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.71	-9	7	-16	15.7	13.8	1.92	16.6	16.7	-0.09

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	80	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-5	12	17.0	13.8	3.19	14.5	16.3	-1.88
Rudy Fernandez	50	52	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.35	8	-6	14	16.6	16.6	-0.01	15.4	13.8	1.64
Travis Outlaw	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.10	15	-13	28	16.6	16.8	-0.19	15.7	12.7	2.98
Steve Blake	57	59	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.46	-3	5	-8	17.1	15.9	1.23	13.6	16.6	-2.98
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.54	-6	8	-14	16.7	16.3	0.43	14.3	16.4	-2.10
Joel Przybilla	49	49	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.27	-1	3	-4	17.5	15.6	1.96	13.6	15.9	-2.30
Jerryd Bayless	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.16	10	-8	18	16.0	16.8	-0.81	16.1	14.2	1.89
Channing Frye	8	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	7	-12	14.7	16.8	-2.06	18.0	14.3	3.65
Sergio Rodriguez	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	7	-12	15.3	16.8	-1.43	18.0	14.3	3.65
Nicolas Batum	42	42	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	12	-22	15.1	17.9	-2.76	14.0	15.3	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.27,0.41,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 84, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.49,0.32,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.57,0.82,1	92.3%
MIL 88, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.16,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.53,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	91.9%
ORL 98, HOU 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.47,0.34,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.85,1	91.2%