NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	8.3 [275]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +14.5%
Houston Rockets	103		Comeback	12.9 [164]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (ORL): -23.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.14	0.00	0.12	-0.02	16	47%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	16	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.06	0.02	18	59%	0.12	4	-0.16	3	67%	0.00
Mo Bamba	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	-0.09	0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	9	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.15	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	19	45%	-0.05	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.23,-0.23	-0.05	-0.20	-0.02	9	40%	-0.07	1	-0.16	7	29%	-0.07

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.15,-0.05,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.07	0.06	27	63%	0.35	5	-0.20	9	89%	0.05
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.08	-0.00	6	40%	0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
James Ennis III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	8	67%	0.13	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	14	57%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	5	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	24.6	14.8	26.2	1.8	31.0	125.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +56.5%

HOU +4.8%

ORL -29.6%

HOU +17.1%

HOU +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	16.2	13.4	14.3	100.0	107.3	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		107.2	114.0
opponent	14.4	14.3		109.3	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.0	20.4	15.5	16.5	16.2
HOU	16.4	12.4	12.2	12.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Isaac	51	49	0.35	-0.85	1.20	-0.06	14	-19	33	15.6	16.9	-1.33	14.9	12.0	2.90
Jonathon Simmons	37	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.23	-13	8	-21	16.8	15.9	0.99	12.3	14.1	-1.72
Mo Bamba	29	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	3	-11	16.7	16.0	0.71	12.0	14.1	-2.06
D.J. Augustin	57	56	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.54	10	-15	25	15.4	17.4	-1.96	14.5	11.9	2.59
Jerian Grant	41	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.19	-15	10	-25	17.4	15.4	1.96	11.9	14.5	-2.59
Nikola Vucevic	69	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.40	3	-8	11	16.0	16.7	-0.71	14.1	12.0	2.06
Evan Fournier	61	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.59	8	-13	21	15.9	16.8	-0.99	14.1	12.3	1.72
Aaron Gordon	81	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.47	4	-9	13	16.4	15.6	0.77	13.4	13.7	-0.37
Terrence Ross	64	63	-0.99	0.49	-1.49	-0.17	-28	23	-51	16.6	15.6	0.97	12.4	15.4	-2.98

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Gordon	74	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-2	9	13.2	14.2	-1.02	16.5	15.1	1.40
Kenneth Faried	71	73	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-1	7	13.4	13.6	-0.22	17.0	13.9	3.15
PJ Tucker	78	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-4	13	13.3	14.0	-0.69	16.7	14.5	2.16
James Harden	74	74	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	6	-7	13.8	12.1	1.69	16.1	16.6	-0.53
Chris Paul	51	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	7	-9	13.9	12.9	0.95	15.5	17.1	-1.56
James Ennis III	43	46	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.12	8	-3	11	13.3	13.6	-0.33	17.2	15.4	1.75
Austin Rivers	43	45	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.15	8	-3	11	12.6	14.1	-1.55	16.0	16.4	-0.37
Nene	25	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.05	-1	6	-7	13.6	13.4	0.22	13.9	17.0	-3.15
Gerald Green	21	21	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.13	-9	14	-23	14.4	13.2	1.27	14.0	16.8	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.47,0.34,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 113, OKC 115	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.24,0.28,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.36,0.43,0.91,1	92.4%
CHI 84, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.49,0.32,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.57,0.82,1	91.6%
SAC 94, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.53,0.32,0.46,0.67,0.92,1	91.6%