NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	91		Excitement	8.2 [206]		MVP	Andre Miller (PHI): +27.0%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	2.6 [506]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (PHI): -19.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.27	0.14	0.13	0.00	21	60%	0.27	0	0.00	8	100%	0.08
Marreese Speights	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.12	0.00	10	60%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.1	0.03	-0.12	0.00	19	51%	0.08	2	-0.17	5	100%	0.04
Willie Green	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	9	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.2	-0.11	-0.13	-0.04	16	35%	-0.16	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.15	0.01	7	68%	0.23	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.04
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.02	12	63%	0.21	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.07
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	9	60%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,-0.01,0.09,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.10	0.02	14	68%	0.34	5	-0.20	9	100%	0.10
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.02	8	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	9	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	40%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	29.5	17.5	30.4	1.8	39.1	144.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +79.9%

MIA +15.6%

PHI -36.4%

PHI -6.2%

PHI -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.8	15.5	102.2	110.2	106.4
season	15.5	16.0		105.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.9		105.7	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	17.6	16.6	15.5	17.3	16.8
MIA	17.5	14.7	16.4	14.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Evans	17	16	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.04	3	-9	12	17.5	16.6	0.95	15.1	15.9	-0.87
Theo Ratliff	32	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-10	14	14.7	17.9	-3.14	16.2	15.6	0.60
Lou Williams	58	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-14	22	16.2	17.9	-1.75	14.7	17.7	-3.04
Royal Ivey	25	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-2	-2	19.1	15.9	3.22	13.5	16.7	-3.28
Andre Miller	76	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-4	2	16.6	17.7	-1.09	15.7	16.1	-0.36
Thaddeus Young	55	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	3	-12	16.2	17.6	-1.43	15.9	15.6	0.32
Marreese Speights	39	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-6	6	16.5	17.0	-0.49	14.6	16.6	-2.01
Samuel Dalembert	38	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	4	-14	19.1	15.0	4.13	17.0	14.9	2.12
Willie Green	29	29	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	10	-26	18.2	16.1	2.09	17.8	14.8	2.96
Andre Iguodala	76	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	-2	-2	16.1	20.5	-4.42	16.5	11.3	5.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	63	64	1.00	-0.50	1.50	0.18	28	-22	50	16.0	15.2	0.80	17.3	15.5	1.79
Dwyane Wade	70	71	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.24	23	-17	40	15.8	15.5	0.34	16.9	16.1	0.89
Mario Chalmers	48	50	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.19	15	-9	24	15.9	15.6	0.36	17.1	16.4	0.68
Udonis Haslem	60	62	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.31	-1	7	-8	16.4	14.5	1.87	15.5	19.7	-4.22
Yakhouba Diawara	43	43	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	-2	10	16.9	14.7	2.26	16.6	17.0	-0.40
Jamario Moon	45	46	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.29	-2	8	-10	14.7	16.9	-2.26	17.0	16.6	0.40
Joel Anthony	7	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	8	-10	12.4	16.1	-3.63	21.6	16.4	5.22
Michael Beasley	46	45	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.20	-13	19	-32	15.2	16.4	-1.21	17.1	16.5	0.61
Daequan Cook	29	27	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.23	-17	23	-40	15.5	15.9	-0.38	17.3	16.5	0.76
Chris Quinn	29	30	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.02	-9	15	-24	15.6	15.9	-0.28	15.4	17.5	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.36,0.55,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 78, MIN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.62,0.7,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.64,0.68,0.92,1	91.5%
ORL 107, HOU 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.85,1	91.0%
LAC 97, GSW 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.51,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.55,0.92,1	90.9%