NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	93		Excitement	3.0 [1184]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +14.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Comeback	1.0 [441]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -8.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.05	13	69%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	13	61%	0.02	4	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03
Brandon Roy	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	0.00	0.10	27	53%	0.01	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	30%	-0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.02	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	-0.00	-0.03	25	54%	0.14	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.00	0.04	11	72%	0.12	0	0.00	7	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	18	53%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	7	60%	0.08	4	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	6	43%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	-0.00	6	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	27.6	15.6	32.3	2.4	33.3	139.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +28.4%

OKC +8.1%

OKC +10.0%

OKC +2.6%

OKC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	OKC	NBA	POR	OKC	NBA
this game	14.3	16.3	15.5	98.9	108.5	106.4
season	16.7	14.9		111.0	100.5
opponent	15.1	16.0		106.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.1	15.8	14.6	11.7	14.3
OKC	14.2	14.2	17.3	19.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	34	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-4	-1	14.3	14.4	-0.12	16.6	16.1	0.50
Sergio Rodriguez	43	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-5	1	15.0	13.7	1.30	15.7	16.8	-1.19
Greg Oden	31	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-1	-7	15.7	13.7	2.04	15.2	16.9	-1.64
Joel Przybilla	28	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.07	-5	-4	-1	14.9	14.1	0.79	15.7	16.5	-0.83
Rudy Fernandez	47	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-6	3	13.2	15.5	-2.26	16.0	16.6	-0.64
Travis Outlaw	66	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-6	3	14.3	14.4	-0.07	16.4	16.1	0.28
Jerryd Bayless	51	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-4	-1	13.7	15.0	-1.30	16.8	15.7	1.19
Brandon Roy	87	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	14.5	12.0	2.53	16.7	11.6	5.11
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-2	-5	14.1	15.9	-1.78	16.5	14.8	1.68

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	85	84	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	1	7	16.5	14.4	2.05	14.2	15.9	-1.75
Jeff Green	85	85	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	1	7	16.8	11.6	5.24	14.5	12.4	2.10
Kyle Weaver	66	68	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	-3	15	15.9	17.2	-1.31	15.0	12.5	2.54
Earl Watson	66	65	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	1	7	16.3	16.2	0.07	13.8	15.6	-1.75
Nick Collison	67	66	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	6	-3	17.0	14.4	2.60	14.0	15.2	-1.30
Joe Smith	38	38	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	5	-1	15.1	17.1	-2.05	15.3	13.7	1.55
Russell Westbrook	51	52	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	9	-9	16.1	16.6	-0.52	13.8	15.0	-1.15
Chucky Atkins	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	7	-5	14.1	16.6	-2.54	14.6	14.3	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	97.3%
PHI 90, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	97.1%
CHA 99, SEA 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%