NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	100		Excitement	5.4 [738]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +15.8%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	1.0 [1164]		LVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): -16.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.03	16	70%	0.18	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	9	55%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	2	17%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	19	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.05	13	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	9	45%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Aaron Gray	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	6	14%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Tyrus Thomas	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.04	0.02	15	39%	-0.09	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.15	0.02	0.05	12	82%	0.21	4	-0.09	10	100%	0.04
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.02	14	53%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	9	56%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	45%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.02	0.07	12	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	7	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.8	27.2	15.7	25.6	1.7	36.3	137.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +26.3%

HOU +18.7%

HOU +0.1%

HOU +1.2%

HOU +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	HOU	NBA	CHI	HOU	NBA
this game	12.6	17.2	15.5	104.2	110.3	106.4
season	14.8	16.3		106.3	105.9
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	11.8	13.2	11.2	12.6
HOU	15.7	18.7	16.8	17.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	35	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.28	9	-16	25	11.0	13.6	-2.59	17.2	17.2	-0.02
Andres Nocioni	56	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-8	9	11.2	14.6	-3.36	18.1	15.9	2.22
Kirk Hinrich	39	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-3	-1	13.0	12.4	0.61	18.7	16.2	2.44
Joakim Noah	32	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.07	-6	-1	-5	14.8	11.5	3.34	17.8	16.9	0.91
Aaron Gray	38	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.35	1	-8	9	12.1	13.0	-0.93	16.6	17.6	-0.94
Luol Deng	76	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	1	-9	13.1	10.8	2.23	17.3	16.9	0.39
Tyrus Thomas	75	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.08	-15	8	-23	13.2	10.5	2.68	16.8	18.5	-1.67
Derrick Rose	60	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	0	-7	12.7	12.5	0.14	16.5	18.4	-1.88
Ben Gordon	69	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-1	-5	12.5	13.0	-0.54	16.6	18.7	-2.12

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yao Ming	59	60	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.21	16	-9	25	17.1	17.4	-0.31	13.5	11.1	2.36
Tracy McGrady	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-3	13	17.1	17.4	-0.28	12.8	12.3	0.54
Metta World Peace	54	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	5	-3	18.9	15.1	3.71	12.3	13.0	-0.73
Rafer Alston	48	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-3	13	16.5	17.9	-1.36	13.6	11.7	1.90
Shane Battier	54	53	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	-3	13	15.5	19.3	-3.77	12.8	12.4	0.35
Luis Scola	66	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	3	1	17.0	17.6	-0.60	12.8	12.2	0.67
Aaron Brooks	49	48	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	10	-13	17.9	16.5	1.36	11.7	13.6	-1.90
Von Wafer	41	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	10	-13	17.4	17.1	0.28	12.3	12.8	-0.54
Carl Landry	41	42	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	13	-19	18.0	16.6	1.42	11.7	13.4	-1.69
Charles Hayes	17	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.09	-5	12	-17	16.5	17.4	-0.89	11.3	12.8	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.83,0.77,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 85, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
ATL 86, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
CHI 82, ORL 96	0.5,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%