NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	6.2 [586]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +26.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	85		Comeback	2.0 [785]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -19.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.15	0.11	-0.01	15	74%	0.37	4	-0.10	9	100%	0.04
Linas Kleiza	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	12	59%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	12	62%	0.12	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	3	70%	0.08	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.02	-0.06	7	29%	-0.01	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	5	50%	0.02	8	-0.17	10	60%	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.02	9	62%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	68%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	7	57%	0.08	3	-0.05	9	56%	-0.04
Greg Buckner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	18%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.17,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.00	-0.01	14	41%	-0.00	6	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	11	33%	-0.04	4	-0.14	5	60%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	9	30%	-0.08	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	1.8	35.0	16.5	28.2	1.8	35.3	149.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.2%

DEN +15.9%

MEM -8.5%

DEN +6.1%

MEM -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	13.2	14.6	15.5	97.1	81.7	106.4
season	14.4	16.1		109.5	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	10.9	12.7	15.8	13.2
MEM	15.8	14.3	15.5	12.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	77	79	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.10	27	-12	39	13.2	13.1	0.08	15.5	12.1	3.38
Kenyon Martin	73	76	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.04	22	-7	29	12.7	14.4	-1.78	16.1	10.7	5.38
Chris Andersen	59	54	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	12	-9	14.1	12.0	2.05	13.4	16.0	-2.65
Chauncey Billups	73	76	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.04	11	4	7	12.4	15.1	-2.67	15.8	11.6	4.16
Dahntay Jones	45	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	10	-5	12.4	13.8	-1.34	15.4	14.1	1.31
Nene	56	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	3	9	12.7	13.7	-1.01	16.1	12.8	3.29
Linas Kleiza	61	61	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	12	-9	13.4	12.9	0.50	12.9	17.1	-4.25
Anthony Carter	48	47	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	10	-5	14.5	12.0	2.52	13.6	15.5	-1.95
Sonny Weems	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	14.1	13.1	1.04	6.7	15.1	-8.47
Johan Petro	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	14.1	13.1	1.04	6.7	15.1	-8.47
Renaldo Balkman	9	9	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	22	-29	14.3	13.1	1.27	8.6	15.2	-6.67

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	29	29	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-20	25	10.9	16.1	-5.15	13.2	13.1	0.09
Quinton Ross	26	30	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.15	6	-21	27	11.5	15.7	-4.19	14.1	12.8	1.35
Darius Miles	42	44	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-13	11	12.0	16.4	-4.36	13.9	12.6	1.28
Kyle Lowry	52	54	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-14	13	12.6	16.7	-4.06	15.1	11.1	4.03
Marc Gasol	40	38	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-16	17	17.9	12.6	5.33	13.0	13.3	-0.28
Greg Buckner	5	5	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-9	3	15.2	14.6	0.58	12.2	13.2	-1.02
Hakim Warrick	62	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-13	11	13.2	16.8	-3.55	13.3	12.9	0.45
O.J. Mayo	68	66	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	0	-15	16.0	12.2	3.79	13.4	12.8	0.65
Darrell Arthur	54	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-1	-13	15.9	13.3	2.55	12.0	14.4	-2.40
Rudy Gay	80	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.05	-20	5	-25	15.9	10.6	5.28	12.6	14.7	-2.07
Mike Conley	62	59	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	0.11	-27	12	-39	16.4	12.1	4.24	11.8	15.0	-3.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, CLE 75	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.61,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.25,0.28,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0	93.8%
POR 90, NOH 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
ATL 87, VAN 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	93.2%