NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	90		Excitement	5.4 [768]		MVP	Lee Nailon (NOH): +13.6%
New Orleans Hornets	81		Comeback	1.5 [429]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NOH): -21.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	17	62%	0.16	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	13	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Viktor Khryapa	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ha Seung-Jin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	19	41%	-0.04	1	-0.00	8	100%	0.01
Darius Miles	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.14	0.02	-0.03	10	10%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	-0.00	0.01	13	77%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	9	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maciej Lampe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.02	10	39%	-0.07	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Jackson Vroman	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	6	43%	-0.03	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.17	-0.09	-0.05	16	32%	-0.08	4	-0.13	2	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	25.7	15.7	25.2	2.4	33.4	128.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +31.0%

POR +7.1%

NOH -5.2%

POR +23.8%

NOH -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	NOH	NBA	POR	NOH	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	15.5	96.8	89.0	104.0
season	15.8	16.5		101.2	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.2	14.3	17.8	18.4	16.3
NOH	14.2	15.1	14.1	16.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	79	77	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-5	19	16.4	16.0	0.37	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Sebastian Telfair	51	50	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-4	17	15.5	17.4	-1.91	15.5	14.3	1.20
Ruben Patterson	56	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	6	-3	18.1	13.6	4.47	14.1	16.2	-2.13
Damon Stoudamire	70	69	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	7	-5	17.3	13.3	3.94	14.5	16.6	-2.13
Viktor Khryapa	30	30	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	3	3	14.2	17.3	-3.12	16.1	14.4	1.67
Darius Miles	54	51	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	5	-1	14.9	18.3	-3.44	14.3	15.8	-1.56
Joel Przybilla	56	57	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	6	-3	16.6	15.8	0.83	15.6	13.9	1.70
Travis Outlaw	60	58	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	12	-15	16.5	15.9	0.62	15.1	14.7	0.39
Richie Frahm	5	5	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.02	6	3	3	8.8	16.7	-7.94	15.0	15.0	0.02
Ha Seung-Jin	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	12	-15	21.0	16.1	4.90	19.2	14.8	4.47

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	38	38	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.14	8	-17	25	16.0	14.2	1.75	16.5	16.2	0.36
Casey Jacobsen	42	42	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-14	19	15.6	14.4	1.19	15.9	16.7	-0.83
George Lynch	18	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-14	19	16.7	14.6	2.11	16.9	16.2	0.73
Maciej Lampe	25	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.15	4	-13	17	16.4	14.4	2.02	16.4	16.3	0.19
Bostjan Nachbar	31	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	-1	-7	14.5	15.2	-0.75	13.4	17.8	-4.44
Lee Nailon	54	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	1	-11	14.5	15.7	-1.22	16.9	15.4	1.51
P.J. Brown	66	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	4	-17	14.4	16.4	-2.02	16.3	16.4	-0.19
Jackson Vroman	41	42	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	4	-17	14.3	15.5	-1.20	17.2	15.5	1.69
J.R. Smith	69	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	2	-13	15.3	13.9	1.47	16.4	16.1	0.22
Dan Dickau	71	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	3	-15	14.3	17.5	-3.30	16.5	15.6	0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, CLE 75	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.61,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.25,0.28,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0	95.1%
DEN 100, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
BOS 102, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.03,0.08,0	93.8%