NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	6.2 [593]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +22.5%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	5.4 [137]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -22.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.14	-0.02	0.05	24	65%	0.13	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	89%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Devean George	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.06	0.03	18	38%	-0.09	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.06	-0.00	9	20%	-0.12	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.08	0.01	10	81%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	14	53%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.03	-0.03	14	62%	0.16	5	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Brad Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	10	59%	0.05	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	29.2	15.5	22.4	2.4	32.7	127.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +54.3%

DAL -8.9%

DAL -0.8%

SAC +4.5%

SAC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.6	15.5	101.1	107.4	106.4
season	15.6	15.0		108.9	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		112.7	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.6	19.2	16.1	16.3	15.9
SAC	14.5	15.1	13.9	15.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	75	75	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-8	9	15.4	17.7	-2.35	14.5	15.2	-0.73
Devean George	41	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.25	2	-9	11	17.1	14.9	2.28	15.6	13.9	1.74
James Singleton	15	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-6	5	17.1	15.6	1.51	16.4	14.2	2.18
Dirk Nowitzki	77	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-2	-3	15.6	17.2	-1.61	14.2	16.1	-1.94
Brandon Bass	37	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-7	7	17.1	15.0	2.10	14.8	14.5	0.35
Gerald Green	28	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-2	-3	14.4	16.5	-2.09	13.0	15.3	-2.38
Antoine Wright	49	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	5	-17	17.2	14.4	2.89	15.0	14.2	0.81
Erick Dampier	54	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	15.8	15.9	-0.11	15.3	13.7	1.65
Jason Terry	73	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-4	1	14.5	20.4	-5.88	14.2	16.1	-1.95
Jose Juan Barea	21	22	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-1	-5	16.4	15.7	0.67	14.0	14.8	-0.87

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	39	38	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	1	5	15.6	14.0	1.60	17.3	14.9	2.35
Jason Thompson	54	54	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-6	19	15.2	13.8	1.39	16.0	15.6	0.37
Kevin Martin	75	73	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	3	1	14.3	15.6	-1.30	15.0	18.8	-3.73
Beno Udrih	72	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	0	7	14.5	14.9	-0.39	15.6	16.5	-0.91
John Salmons	77	76	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	3	1	14.2	16.2	-1.98	15.0	19.7	-4.71
Francisco Garcia	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	9	-11	14.8	14.4	0.46	17.0	14.6	2.35
Brad Miller	70	68	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	3	1	14.7	14.3	0.41	15.2	17.5	-2.21
Bobby Jackson	20	21	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	4	-1	14.7	14.6	0.16	17.5	15.4	2.14
Bobby Brown	7	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	7	-7	13.3	14.7	-1.44	19.6	15.5	4.11
Mikki Moore	11	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	11	-15	12.4	14.9	-2.55	16.3	15.8	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 79, SEA 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.62,0.72,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	92.5%
LAC 92, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.87,0.96,1,1,1,1	92.2%
LAC 109, HOU 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,1	92.2%