NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	4.6 [912]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +17.3%
Washington Wizards	93		Comeback	1.0 [627]		LVP	Caron Butler (WAS): -8.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.20	0.04	0.06	9	109%	0.24	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.08	0.09	-0.03	16	44%	0.14	4	-0.10	9	89%	0.04
Will Solomon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	11	64%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	75%	0.11	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jake Voskuhl	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.04	23	59%	0.11	3	-0.08	8	37%	-0.07
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.04	9	67%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Javaris Crittenton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	12	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	18	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.7	28.3	15.6	24.3	2.6	36.3	130.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +45.0%

TOR +12.9%

TOR +4.7%

WAS -13.8%

TOR +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.5	15.5	111.2	103.3	106.4
season	15.1	15.9		105.0	103.5
opponent	15.2	15.6		111.7	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.4	15.4	16.3	16.7	15.7
WAS	18.3	16.6	17.2	13.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	77	76	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.15	17	-11	28	15.6	16.2	-0.63	17.1	13.1	4.02
Anthony Parker	73	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-5	16	15.4	17.0	-1.58	16.7	15.6	1.08
Will Solomon	67	69	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-5	16	15.4	16.5	-1.05	16.3	17.0	-0.63
Jason Kapono	48	49	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	0	6	16.1	15.3	0.77	15.6	17.5	-1.97
Andrea Bargnani	65	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	3	0	15.7	15.8	-0.17	16.3	16.9	-0.63
Jake Voskuhl	27	30	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	5	-4	16.7	15.3	1.38	16.5	16.4	0.05
Joey Graham	55	55	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	12	-18	15.7	15.7	-0.04	17.1	15.5	1.65
Roko Leni Ukic	24	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	10	-14	16.6	15.4	1.26	16.6	16.4	0.22
Kris Humphries	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.18	-9	15	-24	13.9	15.9	-2.02	12.3	16.9	-4.59

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	13	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.03	-6	0	-6	17.4	16.3	1.07	16.0	15.7	0.34
Javaris Crittenton	50	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-9	12	15.7	17.4	-1.63	16.3	15.0	1.29
Nick Young	46	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-6	6	15.7	17.3	-1.58	16.1	15.3	0.82
Darius Songaila	45	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-8	10	15.4	17.6	-2.18	16.9	14.6	2.32
Dominic McGuire	42	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	4	-14	18.4	14.8	3.63	15.7	15.8	-0.11
Antawn Jamison	70	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-6	6	16.8	15.4	1.31	15.9	15.0	0.85
Mike James	55	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	1	-8	16.3	16.8	-0.50	14.7	17.3	-2.61
Andray Blatche	52	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	0	-6	16.8	16.0	0.76	15.0	16.8	-1.80
Caron Butler	77	77	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	16.5	16.4	0.10	15.5	17.2	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.9%
BOS 124, NOP 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.2,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.15,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.9%
SAC 103, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.01,0	94.6%