NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	5.0 [810]		MVP	Steven Smith (SAS): +17.8%
Washington Wizards	91		Comeback	1.0 [1013]		LVP	Michael Jordan (WAS): -27.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	10	86%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Charles Smith	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.05	-0.02	14	64%	0.17	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.03
David Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mark Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	8	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	13	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Terry Porter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06	-0.16	0.04	-0.06	17	48%	0.04	6	-0.10	12	83%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.01	0.00	14	79%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	12	65%	0.06	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.05
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	12	47%	-0.07	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.05
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27	-0.27	-0.28	-0.04	-0.05	21	34%	-0.16	4	-0.11	16	62%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	509.9	3.3	27.3	19.4	26.3	2.6	40.3	629.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.2%

SAS +0.7%

WAS -15.9%

SAS +7.9%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	WAS	NBA	SAS	WAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.7	15.6	103.2	98.9	102.3
season	15.8	16.5		104.3	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.7		103.9	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.0	15.5	16.1	16.0	15.4
WAS	17.3	14.5	16.6	14.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Smith	74	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-9	23	15.9	13.5	2.38	16.0	14.5	1.46
Steven Smith	70	71	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.21	13	-8	21	15.2	16.1	-0.89	16.3	13.7	2.60
Tim Duncan	84	82	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.26	9	-4	13	15.3	16.3	-1.01	16.2	11.9	4.28
David Robinson	55	56	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.30	1	4	-3	16.3	14.2	2.09	16.6	14.4	2.18
Antonio Daniels	71	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	6	-7	15.7	14.5	1.20	16.1	14.5	1.61
Malik Rose	39	37	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	4	-3	14.7	15.9	-1.21	14.4	16.6	-2.19
Terry Porter	40	37	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	6	-7	14.1	16.4	-2.32	14.1	16.8	-2.74
Mark Bryant	8	9	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	6	-7	14.0	15.6	-1.55	11.6	16.2	-4.61
Stephen Jackson	24	22	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.17	-10	15	-25	15.9	15.2	0.67	14.5	16.1	-1.66

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	27	27	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.14	8	-13	21	13.4	16.7	-3.22	15.6	15.4	0.19
Bobby Simmons	15	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.05	-1	-4	3	16.9	15.5	1.37	14.9	15.5	-0.66
Kwame Brown	5	4	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	0	-5	12.8	15.9	-3.09	8.5	15.7	-7.23
Brendan Haywood	28	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	0	-5	16.5	15.4	1.12	12.4	16.8	-4.37
Tyrone Nesby	33	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-1	-3	15.5	15.8	-0.27	13.8	16.4	-2.55
Hubert Davis	77	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-7	9	14.7	21.0	-6.31	15.9	13.4	2.58
Jahidi White	66	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-4	3	15.9	15.3	0.57	16.8	12.1	4.66
Michael Jordan	75	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.26	-6	1	-7	16.3	13.2	3.12	15.6	14.7	0.87
Popeye Jones	58	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	2	-9	16.5	14.4	2.02	15.8	14.8	1.03
Chris Whitney	76	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	1	-7	16.0	14.2	1.85	15.6	14.5	1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.01,0,0	94.9%
IND 105, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.5%
SAC 103, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.01,0	94.5%