NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	100		Excitement	6.4 [537]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +28.8%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	1.4 [714]		LVP	Chris Paul (NOH): -11.7%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.16,0.11	-0.10	0.20	-0.01	12	25%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.04	8	81%	0.10	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	125%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.21,0.14,0.05,0.05,0	0.09	-0.04	0.05	14	63%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	15	58%	0.07	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	25%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.03,-0.12	0.04	-0.14	0.02	18	67%	0.11	7	-0.23	9	67%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.17	-0.02	11	65%	0.29	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	17	58%	0.12	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.15
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	5	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.00	0.06	5	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	8	50%	-0.06
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	9	52%	0.12	4	-0.10	9	100%	0.12
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.07
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.7	28.2	15.8	25.8	1.8	36.0	138.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +9.9%

DEN +8.0%

DEN +10.2%

DEN +21.5%

DEN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	14.8	15.5	108.7	112.9	106.4
season	16.6	14.4		105.9	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.9	18.3	15.6	15.1	16.4
DEN	15.2	16.8	13.2	14.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	6	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-7	9	14.0	16.5	-2.55	23.4	14.3	9.13
Antonio Daniels	23	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	19.7	15.3	4.36	15.5	14.5	1.02
Morris Peterson	12	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	2	-9	19.6	15.9	3.68	15.7	14.6	1.13
Rasual Butler	57	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	5	-15	15.9	17.1	-1.14	15.4	13.6	1.82
Chris Paul	81	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-8	11	15.8	20.4	-4.52	14.6	16.0	-1.39
Hilton Armstrong	62	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.43	2	-7	9	17.0	15.1	1.85	13.8	16.5	-2.70
James Posey	56	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	0	-5	16.4	16.4	-0.01	14.3	15.5	-1.21
David West	85	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-4	3	15.9	22.7	-6.86	14.6	16.9	-2.26
Peja Stojakovic	78	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	3	-11	16.1	18.1	-1.99	14.7	14.9	-0.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	77	76	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.28	18	-13	31	14.5	15.9	-1.42	16.4	16.2	0.23
Nene	61	62	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-6	17	14.5	15.3	-0.84	16.8	15.6	1.16
J.R. Smith	52	51	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	1	3	15.3	14.0	1.32	15.6	17.3	-1.65
Kenyon Martin	67	67	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.38	-6	11	-17	14.5	15.4	-0.92	15.1	19.7	-4.53
Chris Andersen	38	36	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	3	-1	15.5	14.3	1.20	19.0	14.7	4.26
Anthony Carter	45	44	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	1	3	14.8	14.7	0.16	17.6	15.3	2.32
Linas Kleiza	21	21	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	1	3	14.9	14.7	0.12	15.7	16.6	-0.92
Dahntay Jones	32	33	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	2	1	14.2	15.1	-0.88	17.2	15.9	1.34
Chauncey Billups	72	70	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.44	-15	20	-35	14.9	14.3	0.56	15.4	19.4	-3.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.75,0.67,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.88,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.72,1	91.0%
MIL 90, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.73,1	90.9%
MIA 98, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.67,0.42,1	90.5%