NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	7.5 [332]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +51.2%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	1.6 [798]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -26.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.02	15	64%	0.15	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.01	11	62%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	15	54%	0.18	3	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Corey Maggette	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	9	65%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	3	33%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26	-0.10	-0.18	-0.01	18	32%	-0.24	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.29,0.51	0.51	0.10	0.42	-0.00	13	74%	0.61	4	-0.09	9	67%	-0.06
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	87%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	10	44%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	59%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	15	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	28.6	14.7	23.1	2.5	35.2	128.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +75.1%

SAS +0.2%

MIL -32.4%

MIL -1.2%

SAS +8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	14.6	15.5	94.7	96.8	105.7
season	16.2	15.5		100.1	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.4		103.6	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.0	17.0	14.0	15.8	15.8
SAS	13.4	12.2	18.7	14.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	47	50	0.15	-0.66	0.81	-0.14	10	-12	22	16.1	15.4	0.77	14.5	14.6	-0.08
Corey Maggette	10	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	0	-2	17.4	15.6	1.84	11.9	14.8	-2.95
Earl Boykins	10	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	4	-10	17.9	15.5	2.39	13.0	14.8	-1.76
Luc Mbah a Moute	42	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.40	8	-10	18	15.3	16.1	-0.80	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Keyon Dooling	69	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	8	-18	15.8	15.5	0.30	14.8	14.0	0.72
Brandon Jennings	85	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-4	6	15.5	17.9	-2.39	14.8	12.4	2.41
Andrew Bogut	73	70	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.36	-5	3	-8	16.1	14.6	1.46	14.4	14.9	-0.49
Chris Douglas-Roberts	80	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.46	-2	0	-2	15.7	15.9	-0.13	14.7	13.7	0.97
Ersan Ilyasova	59	59	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.44	-5	3	-8	15.0	17.0	-2.00	15.3	13.4	1.88

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	68	68	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.59	12	-10	22	14.7	14.1	0.62	15.4	16.6	-1.11
Matt Bonner	53	52	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.51	-3	5	-8	14.8	14.3	0.53	15.8	15.7	0.11
Tim Duncan	60	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	0	2	14.8	14.1	0.66	16.4	14.6	1.87
Manu Ginobili	62	62	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	2	-2	14.5	14.7	-0.21	14.5	18.2	-3.67
DeJuan Blair	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	-11	24	14.0	14.9	-0.87	15.9	15.7	0.26
Tony Parker	70	69	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	-2	6	14.2	15.6	-1.41	16.4	13.9	2.53
Tiago Splitter	10	11	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	1	0	13.5	14.7	-1.18	13.1	16.1	-3.02
Gary Neal	22	23	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	2	-2	13.0	15.0	-2.09	18.2	15.0	3.25
George Hill	63	63	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	12	-22	15.4	12.9	2.54	15.7	15.9	-0.18
Antonio McDyess	30	29	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.07	-9	11	-20	14.7	14.5	0.16	15.1	16.1	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 93, WAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.74,0.6,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.73,1	93.9%
POR 98, MEM 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.85,1	93.8%
NOH 94, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.84,1	93.2%