NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	5.1 [805]		MVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): +19.9%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	1.0 [1136]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -9.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.03	10	82%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.01	0.07	8	73%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	16	55%	0.07	6	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	16	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Luol Deng	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.21	0.02	0.04	24	68%	0.28	3	-0.08	11	82%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.03	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	14	48%	0.07	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	8	50%	-0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	14	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	7	25%	-0.05	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	1.6	34.0	16.6	29.2	2.8	32.2	144.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +11.1%

DET +3.4%

DET +15.8%

DET +21.0%

CHI -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	14.1	16.9	15.5	104.3	113.0	106.4
season	14.8	16.9		106.3	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		106.2	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	13.3	12.4	14.5	14.1
DET	14.3	15.5	20.3	17.6	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-8	10	15.2	14.0	1.20	17.1	16.8	0.28
Lindsey Hunter	13	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-9	12	13.6	14.2	-0.61	15.2	17.1	-1.85
Derrick Rose	39	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-4	2	15.0	13.5	1.47	17.3	16.5	0.78
Andres Nocioni	61	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-3	0	14.1	14.2	-0.16	16.8	17.0	-0.26
Joakim Noah	32	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	5	-16	14.2	14.1	0.07	17.5	16.5	0.98
Tyrus Thomas	65	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.50	6	-12	18	14.1	14.3	-0.20	17.3	15.7	1.59
Thabo Sefolosha	43	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	13.3	14.9	-1.63	16.6	17.1	-0.54
Ben Gordon	64	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	1	-8	14.3	13.7	0.59	17.2	16.1	1.11
Luol Deng	69	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	4	-14	14.1	14.2	-0.08	15.8	19.5	-3.71
Larry Hughes	75	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.42	-1	-5	4	14.1	14.3	-0.22	17.1	16.1	0.97

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	81	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-4	14	16.7	17.9	-1.19	13.8	16.7	-2.87
Rasheed Wallace	56	59	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.12	13	-7	20	17.0	16.6	0.45	14.3	13.9	0.36
Tayshaun Prince	75	77	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	0	6	17.0	16.1	0.98	13.8	15.5	-1.70
Arron Afflalo	54	55	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.34	3	3	0	17.4	16.1	1.37	15.1	12.8	2.34
Antonio McDyess	51	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	6	-6	17.5	16.1	1.33	13.9	14.4	-0.52
Richard Hamilton	66	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.22	1	5	-4	16.1	18.8	-2.77	13.8	15.0	-1.14
Allen Iverson	49	49	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	7	-8	16.5	17.3	-0.83	13.6	14.8	-1.18
Jason Maxiell	28	27	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	8	-10	16.8	16.9	-0.10	16.0	13.4	2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.55,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 109, LAC 114	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.62,0.55,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.95,1	95.5%
LAC 79, HOU 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
MIN 61, NJN 84	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%