NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	89		Excitement	6.3 [554]		MVP	Johan Petro (OKC): +19.0%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	1.3 [1225]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -13.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johan Petro	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.07	0.00	9	79%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	14	59%	0.11	5	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Damien Wilkins	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	18	38%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	0.04	10	50%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	7	56%	-0.00	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.08	-0.01	6	75%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.04	-0.04	10	75%	0.18	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	5	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	2	120%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	5	73%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	17	45%	-0.01	3	-0.06	13	54%	-0.05
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.03	0.03	17	38%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.00	-0.02	15	35%	-0.02	5	-0.11	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.4	30.2	15.4	27.6	2.5	26.6	133.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +48.8%

OKC -2.5%

OKC -4.8%

ORL +6.7%

ORL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	15.5	95.7	103.2	106.4
season	14.9	15.3		100.5	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.1		101.4	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.6	15.4	13.6	18.4	15.4
ORL	13.7	16.6	15.8	15.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	9	8	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-14	19	13.6	15.6	-2.04	14.7	15.3	-0.54
Russell Westbrook	66	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-11	13	15.2	15.9	-0.69	15.3	15.1	0.20
Desmond Mason	47	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-10	11	16.0	14.8	1.13	15.8	14.7	1.08
Damien Wilkins	42	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-3	-3	14.8	15.9	-1.03	14.4	15.9	-1.50
Earl Watson	38	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-3	-3	15.8	15.1	0.75	15.8	14.8	0.98
Johan Petro	37	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	16.0	15.0	1.04	15.2	15.3	-0.14
Chris Wilcox	47	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-1	-7	15.3	15.5	-0.29	15.4	15.1	0.30
Jeff Green	72	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-5	1	15.8	14.1	1.68	15.1	15.8	-0.67
Joe Smith	31	33	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.13	-11	2	-13	14.9	15.6	-0.74	15.7	15.0	0.74
Kevin Durant	76	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.15	-12	3	-15	15.2	16.5	-1.31	15.0	16.5	-1.57

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	75	74	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.18	13	-4	17	15.0	16.1	-1.15	16.1	12.7	3.34
Dwight Howard	77	76	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	-1	11	15.0	16.2	-1.14	15.5	14.8	0.77
Anthony Johnson	39	36	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	3	3	16.4	14.5	1.89	14.7	15.8	-1.15
Tony Battie	42	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	3	3	16.1	14.5	1.57	15.1	15.6	-0.52
Keith Bogans	49	48	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.22	1	8	-7	15.6	14.9	0.72	15.6	15.1	0.51
Jameer Nelson	56	56	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	6	-3	14.5	16.4	-1.89	16.1	14.3	1.78
Rashard Lewis	74	73	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	11	-13	15.2	15.5	-0.30	14.9	17.3	-2.49
Courtney Lee	20	20	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	5	-1	15.5	15.2	0.33	16.2	15.2	1.02
JJ Redick	39	38	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	7	-5	14.5	15.8	-1.28	14.6	15.9	-1.34
Adonal Foyle	4	4	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	7	-5	17.7	15.1	2.62	9.7	15.7	-5.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 73, POR 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%
CLE 105, UTA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,0.99,1	94.0%
CLE 86, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.71,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,1,1	94.0%