NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Excitement	8.0 [241]		MVP	Linas Kleiza (DEN): +14.4%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	9.7 [244]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -20.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Ollie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	70%	0.05	1	0.02	6	83%	0.01
Randy Foye	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	15	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Rashad McCants	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	4	89%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.01	17	54%	0.15	3	-0.19	3	67%	-0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Ryan Gomes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.11	-0.01	10	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Kevin Love	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	9	22%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21,-0.21	-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	3	20%	-0.05	1	-0.15	4	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.02	5	92%	0.14	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,0.12	0.12	-0.01	0.11	-0.01	23	46%	0.15	1	-0.03	11	73%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	11	55%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.06	0.03	8	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	4	10%	-0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.22,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.09	-0.02	17	32%	-0.08	1	-0.13	10	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.7	28.4	15.8	28.5	2.0	42.0	148.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +11.6%

MIN -3.7%

DEN +7.0%

DEN +32.5%

DEN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	16.2	14.5	15.5	90.3	94.7	106.4
season	15.8	14.4		104.3	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.2	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.9	15.6	18.0	16.3	16.2
DEN	13.3	14.4	14.7	15.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	16	17	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-11	16	13.9	16.6	-2.76	16.6	14.0	2.62
Rashad McCants	30	32	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.08	0	-6	6	17.3	15.6	1.73	13.7	14.9	-1.17
Jason Collins	30	32	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.11	2	-8	10	17.4	15.6	1.88	15.4	14.0	1.42
Sebastian Telfair	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.01	-5	-1	-4	20.1	15.7	4.37	13.3	14.6	-1.34
Kevin Ollie	26	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	0	-6	15.0	16.6	-1.56	13.3	15.0	-1.67
Randy Foye	77	77	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.41	7	-13	20	15.5	19.5	-4.03	15.0	12.3	2.74
Al Jefferson	74	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-9	12	16.5	14.8	1.72	15.5	10.9	4.61
Craig Smith	33	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	4	-14	17.1	15.7	1.39	15.1	14.2	0.92
Kevin Love	36	36	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.16	-11	5	-16	14.2	17.4	-3.25	12.8	15.5	-2.76
Mike Miller	66	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	1	-8	16.7	14.8	1.95	14.2	15.3	-1.12
Ryan Gomes	68	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.39	-8	2	-10	16.0	16.6	-0.60	13.8	16.4	-2.64

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	74	72	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.39	17	-11	28	13.7	17.3	-3.58	16.7	14.3	2.42
Kenyon Martin	67	65	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-7	20	13.8	16.2	-2.39	16.0	16.5	-0.43
Carmelo Anthony	73	71	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.37	11	-5	16	14.7	13.9	0.82	17.0	13.4	3.60
J.R. Smith	48	46	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-2	10	15.1	13.9	1.15	16.1	16.2	-0.10
Nene	65	63	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	0	6	15.2	12.9	2.28	16.6	15.2	1.47
Anthony Carter	49	49	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.10	0	6	-6	14.0	15.0	-0.94	15.2	17.2	-1.94
Dahntay Jones	32	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	9	-12	15.0	14.3	0.71	17.4	15.5	1.89
Renaldo Balkman	17	18	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.14	-10	16	-26	14.0	14.6	-0.60	12.8	17.0	-4.20
Linas Kleiza	50	50	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	-0.06	-12	18	-30	15.2	13.8	1.40	15.1	17.4	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.68,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 65, BOS 70	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.22,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.14,0.21,0.43,0.85,1	92.2%
ATL 67, ORL 70	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.64,0.69,0.58,1	90.2%
MIA 97, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.36,0.55,0.91,1	90.1%