NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	102		Excitement	9.6 [83]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +119.3%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	5.0 [630]		LVP	Ray Allen (BOS): -17.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.53	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.53	0.11	0.43	0.01	6	93%	0.59	1	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.3	0.07	0.23	0.00	7	81%	0.35	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.19	0.05	0.15	0.01	23	51%	0.22	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.06
Mike Bibby	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.09	0.01	9	80%	0.23	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.01
Mario West	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Acie Law	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	9	64%	0.12	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Randolph Morris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	6	36%	-0.09	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.36,1.19	1.19	0.18	1.01	-0.00	14	77%	1.30	5	-0.11	16	94%	0.18
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.14	0.21	0.01	16	68%	0.37	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.06
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	69%	0.08	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	10	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	0.01	8	25%	-0.06	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.05
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.12	0.02	17	45%	-0.08	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.8	36.2	15.6	31.2	2.8	41.0	157.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -29.7%

BOS +35.7%

BOS +34.2%

BOS +6.2%

BOS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.8	16.1	15.5	113.3	113.2	106.4
season	15.8	15.8		106.7	108.3
opponent	15.6	16.1		101.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.0	17.7	15.3	16.1	15.8
BOS	15.3	13.6	16.0	19.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	44	44	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.06	6	-7	13	15.5	16.0	-0.54	14.6	17.5	-2.90
Mario West	3	4	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-4	7	3.0	16.2	-13.20	10.5	16.3	-5.82
Acie Law	1	1	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-2	3	1.0	15.9	-14.92	2.0	16.2	-14.22
Randolph Morris	9	10	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-2	3	13.6	16.0	-2.44	13.7	16.4	-2.66
Ronald Murray	43	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-2	3	16.8	14.8	2.03	17.3	14.9	2.34
Solomon Jones	48	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	6	-13	16.4	15.0	1.37	15.3	16.9	-1.55
Al Horford	39	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-5	9	16.3	15.3	0.97	18.0	14.5	3.45
Marvin Williams	70	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-5	9	16.4	13.4	3.03	16.0	16.2	-0.17
Maurice Evans	55	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	3	-7	15.6	16.1	-0.49	16.4	15.6	0.75
Joe Johnson	80	81	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.42	-8	7	-15	15.6	16.8	-1.17	16.2	15.2	0.97
Mike Bibby	58	57	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.48	-6	5	-11	15.1	17.0	-1.88	16.2	15.8	0.39

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	66	67	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-12	25	15.1	18.6	-3.55	15.7	16.0	-0.39
Eddie House	33	32	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.81	-6	7	-13	16.9	15.6	1.37	15.3	16.0	-0.69
Paul Pierce	85	85	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-5	11	16.3	13.3	2.93	15.9	14.0	1.86
Ray Allen	69	70	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-8	17	15.8	17.0	-1.29	15.7	15.8	-0.12
Kendrick Perkins	56	57	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-9	19	15.6	16.8	-1.15	16.1	15.2	0.81
Tony Allen	29	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.38	-14	15	-29	15.9	16.1	-0.20	14.9	16.1	-1.29
Leon Powe	31	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	5	-9	18.1	15.0	3.13	16.7	15.3	1.38
Rajon Rondo	61	61	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.32	3	-2	5	15.1	18.0	-2.93	15.4	16.6	-1.23
Glen Davis	25	22	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.11	-12	13	-25	18.6	15.1	3.55	16.6	15.5	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.17,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.54,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 85, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.85,0.95,1	92.7%
HOU 110, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	92.1%
NYK 71, CHA 76	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.95,1	92.1%