NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	7.8 [268]		MVP	Kelenna Azubuike (GSW): +17.9%
Golden State Warriors	111		Comeback	4.4 [433]		LVP	Anthony Carter (DEN): -19.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	8	83%	0.23	4	-0.09	7	100%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	5	82%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.01	7	44%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.01	-0.06	8	52%	0.10	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	30	44%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	10	60%	0.07	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Renaldo Balkman	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	9	33%	-0.07	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.01	17	54%	0.18	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	9	72%	0.11	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	16	44%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	14	39%	0.05	2	-0.08	3	0%	-0.09
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.02	22	51%	0.10	5	-0.14	13	92%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.5	36.4	18.7	30.2	3.4	33.2	152.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +11.2%

DEN -6.0%

GSW +15.1%

GSW +24.4%

GSW +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	15.1	15.5	101.0	112.1	106.4
season	14.4	13.8		109.5	107.3
opponent	15.0	15.7		111.2	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.7	13.3	14.2	17.0	13.8
GSW	14.0	15.0	12.9	19.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	46	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-12	14	13.0	14.5	-1.54	14.7	15.5	-0.79
Kenyon Martin	70	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.24	5	-15	20	12.5	17.0	-4.51	15.8	13.4	2.49
Nene	67	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-12	14	13.8	13.8	-0.06	16.2	12.7	3.50
Renaldo Balkman	15	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	1	-12	16.6	13.3	3.28	9.8	16.0	-6.24
Anthony Carter	78	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-13	16	13.1	16.4	-3.27	16.3	10.9	5.44
J.R. Smith	58	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	14.2	13.2	1.03	15.2	15.1	0.12
Chris Andersen	39	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	3	-16	15.4	12.8	2.67	13.9	15.9	-1.91
Linas Kleiza	40	39	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.10	-20	10	-30	16.3	12.1	4.23	13.8	16.0	-2.18
Carmelo Anthony	87	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.27	-9	-1	-8	13.3	17.0	-3.67	14.8	17.0	-2.16

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandan Wright	65	66	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.10	24	-14	38	14.8	15.8	-1.04	14.2	13.1	1.14
CJ Watson	84	85	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.09	20	-10	30	15.2	14.8	0.40	14.4	10.5	3.85
Kelenna Azubuike	88	90	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.06	21	-11	32	15.3	13.7	1.59	14.2	10.6	3.57
Andris Biedrins	67	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	5	0	14.3	16.9	-2.65	13.4	14.7	-1.22
Stephen Jackson	91	91	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	3	4	15.1	15.5	-0.39	13.5	17.3	-3.87
Marco Belinelli	8	9	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	7	-4	15.5	15.1	0.39	17.3	13.5	3.87
Ronny Turiaf	43	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	16	-22	16.1	14.4	1.72	13.6	13.9	-0.27
DeMarcus Nelson	15	15	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.12	-10	20	-30	14.8	15.2	-0.40	10.5	14.4	-3.85
Al Harrington	34	34	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.10	-14	24	-38	15.8	14.8	1.04	13.1	14.2	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.69,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.97,1	91.8%
SEA 103, PHX 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.7,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.81,0.85,0.89,1,1	91.2%
PHI 89, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.94,0.95,1	91.2%