NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	8.0 [223]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +28.0%
Seattle SuperSonics	99		Comeback	7.9 [66]		LVP	Eddie Jones (DAL): -18.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28	0.15	0.11	-0.02	25	60%	0.28	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Devean George	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	13	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.1,0.1,-0.05	0.09	-0.12	0.02	18	60%	-0.00	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.14	-0.00	7	21%	-0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.27	0.27	-0.02	0.25	-0.04	18	45%	0.30	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	14	51%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.03	-0.03	9	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	58%	0.10	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	43%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	10	37%	0.00	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	-0.01	15	37%	-0.14	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	30.4	16.7	28.1	2.4	35.3	139.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +28.9%

SEA +20.5%

DAL -1.4%

SEA +2.0%

SEA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	16.8	14.0	15.4	101.1	106.5	105.7
season	16.1	14.5		108.9	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.4		107.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.7	17.8	16.6	19.8	16.8
SEA	14.6	12.8	14.1	14.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	44	41	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.08	1	-5	6	15.5	18.0	-2.48	13.7	14.2	-0.50
Tyronn Lue	17	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.13	-6	2	-8	15.5	17.1	-1.62	11.1	14.6	-3.51
Juwan Howard	9	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-3	2	14.3	17.1	-2.73	17.0	13.7	3.29
Malik Allen	25	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	0	-4	18.0	16.3	1.69	12.6	14.5	-1.89
Erick Dampier	60	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.38	7	-11	18	16.8	16.8	0.05	14.6	12.9	1.65
Brandon Bass	22	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	4	-12	18.9	16.2	2.70	11.8	14.7	-2.90
Eddie Jones	48	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	3	-10	17.8	15.8	1.99	14.1	13.9	0.15
Dirk Nowitzki	68	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-6	8	16.1	18.5	-2.41	14.5	12.7	1.74
Jason Terry	61	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-6	8	16.5	17.4	-0.92	14.3	13.5	0.81
Jason Kidd	60	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.38	-5	1	-6	17.8	14.9	2.91	14.2	13.6	0.63
Josh Howard	56	55	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.52	-1	-3	2	16.4	17.3	-0.87	14.3	13.5	0.78

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	80	82	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.43	10	-6	16	13.6	16.5	-2.96	17.1	14.5	2.63
Nick Collison	69	70	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.58	2	2	0	14.3	13.1	1.16	16.2	18.6	-2.40
Jeff Green	78	80	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.46	5	-1	6	14.3	12.2	2.13	17.0	15.6	1.44
Johan Petro	66	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-1	6	14.2	13.5	0.72	17.0	16.4	0.58
Kevin Durant	77	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.47	0	4	-4	14.5	11.4	3.08	16.1	20.1	-3.93
Francisco Elson	14	13	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	3	-2	11.4	14.5	-3.10	16.8	16.8	0.06
Luke Ridnour	31	31	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.20	-1	5	-6	13.4	14.3	-0.90	18.4	16.0	2.32
Damien Wilkins	50	50	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.18	-2	6	-8	13.7	14.3	-0.58	16.6	17.0	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.11,0.15,0.37,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, IND 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.47,0.4,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.47,1	90.1%
PHX 101, ATL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.71,0.76,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.15,0.15,0.32,0.18,1	89.2%
DET 101, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.75,0.63,0.36,0.24,0.13,0.25,0.15,0.05,0.1,1	88.8%