NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	9.4 [107]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +45.6%
Indiana Pacers	100		Comeback	20.1 [40]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -40.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	11	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Matt Bonner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	55%	0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.09
Manu Ginobili	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03	-0.06	0.09	0.00	11	45%	0.10	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.10
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	16	58%	0.01	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.41	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.41	-0.11	-0.30	0.00	11	55%	0.03	8	-0.44	9	56%	-0.05

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.46	0.46	0.01	0.43	-0.01	17	54%	0.58	3	-0.12	3	33%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.12	0.16	0.00	13	71%	0.33	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	13	60%	0.12	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maceo Baston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	14	52%	0.07	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.05,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.04	-0.16	0.01	16	52%	-0.07	1	-0.06	8	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.8	27.9	15.7	30.0	2.8	34.7	136.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +54.0%

SAS -6.7%

SAS -3.0%

IND +8.1%

SAS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	IND	NBA	SAS	IND	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	15.4	106.5	111.1	104.5
season	16.2	15.3		107.5	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		103.9	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	17.8	16.0	15.4	16.1
IND	16.1	13.5	16.8	15.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	45	44	0.40	-0.90	1.31	0.17	8	-9	17	15.4	16.7	-1.22	15.8	15.0	0.84
Jacque Vaughn	29	30	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.16	6	-7	13	16.1	16.1	-0.01	16.7	14.7	2.02
Matt Bonner	29	28	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-4	7	17.3	15.5	1.84	15.7	15.2	0.47
Fabricio Oberto	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	0	-1	16.5	16.0	0.55	15.8	15.3	0.49
Tony Parker	70	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-2	3	15.9	16.5	-0.54	15.1	16.3	-1.17
Francisco Elson	37	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	6	-13	15.8	16.3	-0.48	15.9	15.1	0.86
Bruce Bowen	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	1	-3	16.8	15.0	1.79	15.6	15.1	0.45
Tim Duncan	68	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.41	0	-1	1	16.1	16.0	0.05	14.9	16.7	-1.74
Michael Finley	56	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.68	1	-2	3	16.0	16.2	-0.14	15.3	15.5	-0.15
Manu Ginobili	60	58	-1.14	0.64	-1.78	-0.73	-14	13	-27	15.5	17.1	-1.53	14.6	16.9	-2.35

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	75	78	0.99	-0.49	1.49	0.67	11	-10	21	14.8	18.4	-3.61	16.3	14.7	1.60
Troy Murphy	65	69	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.52	9	-8	17	15.1	16.1	-1.01	15.8	16.8	-0.97
Jamaal Tinsley	67	69	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.25	10	-9	19	15.0	16.6	-1.64	16.3	15.3	1.06
Danny Granger	78	80	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.45	-1	2	-3	15.3	15.7	-0.42	15.6	19.2	-3.67
Ike Diogu	59	60	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	1	-1	16.4	13.5	2.81	16.2	15.8	0.35
Maceo Baston	7	7	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	-2	5	10.7	15.8	-5.07	17.7	15.9	1.77
David Harrison	15	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	-2	5	13.5	15.8	-2.23	18.9	15.5	3.46
Jeff Foster	18	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	6	-11	15.9	15.3	0.62	14.8	16.4	-1.62
Shawne Williams	31	31	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.09	-9	10	-19	16.6	14.7	1.87	16.0	16.1	-0.16
Darrell Armstrong	35	36	-0.56	1.06	-1.63	-0.09	-16	17	-33	16.9	14.4	2.45	15.6	16.4	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.47,0.4,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.47,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 100, MIA 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.27,1	90.3%
DAL 95, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.11,0.15,0.37,1	90.1%
SAC 90, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.37,0.3,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	90.1%