NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	9.0 [122]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +56.8%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	10.5 [257]		LVP	Patty Mills (SAS): -23.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Anderson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	2	100%	0.19	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	7	75%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Tiago Splitter	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	12	60%	0.14	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.03	7	71%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	68%	0.17	5	-0.18	6	83%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Cory Joseph	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,0.08,0.05,-0.22	-0.11	-0.16	-0.05	20	45%	0.04	6	-0.26	4	100%	0.04
Patty Mills	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23	-0.13	-0.09	0.01	11	32%	-0.08	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.57	0.57	0.08	0.49	-0.00	15	57%	0.57	0	0.00	5	100%	0.09
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.00	-0.01	14	60%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.01	17	49%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	0.01	8	47%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.10	0.02	16	61%	0.05	4	-0.15	6	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.8	29.4	19.4	25.1	3.6	39.4	144.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.0%

SAS -12.4%

SAS -21.8%

MIA +41.1%

MIA +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	13.8	15.4	103.1	109.4	104.1
season	15.2	15.7		106.4	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		102.4	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	16.2	16.7	15.8	16.0
MIA	14.5	13.8	13.9	13.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Anderson	41	41	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.13	9	-14	23	15.0	16.8	-1.77	13.8	13.8	-0.06
Cory Joseph	32	31	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-10	15	15.3	16.4	-1.10	13.1	14.2	-1.06
Matt Bonner	58	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-5	5	16.8	14.8	2.01	14.7	12.6	2.08
DeJuan Blair	38	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-3	1	16.6	15.6	0.96	12.5	14.7	-2.17
Gary Neal	67	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-10	15	15.6	16.9	-1.32	13.4	14.7	-1.36
Nando De Colo	67	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-1	-3	15.9	16.3	-0.36	14.1	13.0	1.11
Tiago Splitter	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.28	-5	0	-5	15.6	16.6	-0.96	14.4	12.8	1.63
Patty Mills	48	50	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	11	-27	16.2	15.8	0.41	13.5	14.1	-0.61
Boris Diaw	75	74	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.34	-17	12	-29	16.6	14.0	2.55	13.9	13.4	0.52

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	71	72	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.30	18	-13	31	14.2	12.8	1.42	17.1	12.8	4.29
Dwyane Wade	63	63	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.32	14	-9	23	14.1	13.2	0.87	16.6	14.9	1.66
Mario Chalmers	49	52	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-7	19	14.7	12.9	1.76	17.4	14.4	3.02
Ray Allen	58	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	8	-11	13.2	14.8	-1.66	14.9	17.6	-2.73
LeBron James	78	79	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	6	-7	13.9	13.6	0.25	15.7	17.6	-1.88
Mike Miller	34	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.13	7	-2	9	12.7	14.4	-1.76	15.7	16.2	-0.52
Udonis Haslem	40	40	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	9	-13	12.2	15.0	-2.76	14.1	17.4	-3.23
Joel Anthony	6	6	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	5	-5	13.3	13.8	-0.51	14.8	16.1	-1.27
Rashard Lewis	39	40	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	11	-17	14.8	13.1	1.74	17.2	15.2	1.96
Norris Cole	42	41	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.04	-12	17	-29	14.1	13.6	0.54	14.8	16.9	-2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.4,0.29,0.33,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.28,1	91.8%
MIN 90, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.27,1	90.5%
NJN 80, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.26,1	90.4%