NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	112		Excitement	7.4 [308]		MVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): +22.5%
Denver Nuggets	119		Comeback	1.7 [809]		LVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): -21.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.03	18	58%	0.19	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
Andris Biedrins	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	10	77%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Matt Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.00	24	55%	0.07	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.13	-0.02	-0.05	15	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	22	45%	-0.01	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.09	-0.00	21	60%	0.26	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.05	0.00	16	68%	0.21	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	79%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	16	53%	0.14	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.17	-0.06	-0.02	20	30%	-0.15	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.3	29.4	15.8	24.0	2.4	33.3	132.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.2%

GSW -7.5%

DEN +9.4%

DEN +1.3%

DEN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	12.6	15.4	103.7	109.2	105.7
season	13.5	13.3		109.8	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.1		105.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.5	13.2	15.6	13.8	14.0
DEN	12.2	11.6	13.2	13.4	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	76	76	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.35	13	-20	33	13.4	15.5	-2.18	13.6	10.1	3.53
Kelenna Azubuike	63	63	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-8	9	14.5	13.4	1.10	12.1	13.2	-1.04
CJ Watson	1	2	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-9	11	14.0	14.0	-0.00	4.5	12.7	-8.20
Marco Belinelli	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-9	11	14.0	14.0	-0.00	6.0	12.6	-6.61
Austin Croshere	32	33	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-10	13	13.4	14.2	-0.80	13.9	12.0	1.95
Al Harrington	36	38	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	2	-11	14.4	13.8	0.62	10.7	13.5	-2.78
Matt Barnes	20	20	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	6	-19	14.2	14.0	0.25	10.1	13.1	-3.00
Monta Ellis	107	108	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	2	-11	14.0	14.0	0.00	12.6	6.0	6.61
Stephen Jackson	104	103	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	3	-13	14.2	9.2	4.93	12.8	8.3	4.46
Baron Davis	100	101	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.24	-15	8	-23	14.0	14.0	0.00	12.7	11.2	1.40

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	39	38	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-8	23	11.2	13.3	-2.13	14.7	13.6	1.10
J.R. Smith	61	60	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.24	14	-7	21	12.3	12.8	-0.47	13.8	14.2	-0.34
Eduardo Najera	47	47	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.12	15	-8	23	11.8	13.1	-1.38	13.8	14.2	-0.41
Allen Iverson	104	102	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	1	5	12.5	12.6	-0.05	13.9	16.3	-2.47
Kenyon Martin	86	85	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	6	-5	12.7	12.0	0.70	14.2	13.1	1.16
Carmelo Anthony	84	84	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	10	-13	13.1	10.6	2.53	14.0	13.8	0.21
Anthony Carter	52	52	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	12.9	12.3	0.60	14.2	13.8	0.48
Marcus Camby	72	72	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.08	-8	15	-23	12.9	11.9	1.04	13.6	14.9	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.86,0.78,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 86, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.92,1,1,1	93.6%
MEM 108, DEN 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.78,0.91,0.87,0.69,0.78,0.96,0.92,1	93.0%
MIA 85, SEA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.66,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	92.7%