NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	6.6 [470]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +9.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	94		Comeback	1.4 [786]		LVP	Shawn Kemp (SEA): -15.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Crotty	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	21	58%	0.12	5	-0.11	6	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	8	62%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	12	57%	0.04	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	6	61%	0.02	5	-0.11	11	91%	0.05
Ike Austin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	3	20%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.02	21	57%	0.09	0	0.00	11	82%	0.04
David Wingate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.01	12	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Scheffler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Graham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Ehlo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	53%	0.00	2	-0.06	12	75%	0.02
Larry Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	30%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	9	16%	-0.11	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	0.00	-0.01	15	40%	-0.00	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.7	34.3	16.7	30.2	1.7	33.0	146.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -7.8%

SEA +16.9%

SEA +13.3%

SEA +22.3%

SEA +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SEA	NBA	MIA	SEA	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.6	94.4	104.4	104.4
season	15.8	14.9		103.1	108.9
opponent	16.2	16.3		100.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	16.4	16.4	17.4	16.3
SEA	15.3	13.0	17.1	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Crotty	30	29	-0.09	-0.40	0.32	-0.15	2	-11	13	17.6	15.7	1.97	15.9	15.6	0.37
Alonzo Mourning	52	52	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-8	7	17.1	15.3	1.79	16.1	15.1	0.95
Voshon Lenard	29	29	-0.22	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-1	-7	15.1	16.9	-1.85	13.6	16.7	-3.04
P.J. Brown	70	68	-0.24	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-5	1	15.6	18.7	-3.06	14.5	19.5	-5.00
Ike Austin	26	27	-0.25	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-5	1	16.5	16.2	0.30	19.6	14.0	5.65
Keith Askins	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-5	1	17.1	14.7	2.36	16.3	14.3	1.97
Kurt Thomas	32	33	-0.32	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	0	-9	16.4	16.3	0.13	14.3	16.5	-2.12
Sasha Danilovic	82	82	-0.41	-0.08	-0.33	-0.20	-7	-2	-5	16.2	17.2	-1.02	16.0	12.6	3.35
Tim Hardaway	68	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.16	-10	1	-11	15.7	18.2	-2.52	15.5	16.2	-0.67

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Perkins	52	52	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.07	22	-13	35	15.2	16.4	-1.20	16.4	16.2	0.28
Larry Stewart	32	33	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.21	16	-7	23	15.0	16.1	-1.10	17.0	15.9	1.02
Gary Payton	81	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-4	17	15.8	15.0	0.75	16.7	13.3	3.32
David Wingate	33	34	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.19	10	-1	11	16.9	14.9	1.99	16.2	16.4	-0.14
Shawn Kemp	72	72	0.13	0.36	-0.23	0.19	-2	11	-13	16.3	13.2	3.14	15.8	18.3	-2.44
Detlef Schrempf	70	70	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	12	-15	15.6	16.1	-0.54	16.6	15.4	1.12
Craig Ehlo	14	13	0.10	0.39	-0.29	-0.05	5	4	1	16.1	15.6	0.55	16.5	16.3	0.25
Steve Scheffler	1	1	0.00	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	11	-13	13.0	15.7	-2.71	6.0	16.4	-10.44
Greg Graham	1	0	0.00	0.49	-0.49	0.00	0	9	-9	13.0	15.7	-2.71	0.0	16.3	-16.32
Hersey Hawkins	56	56	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	10	-11	15.0	16.7	-1.70	16.0	16.8	-0.81
Eric Snow	10	10	-0.08	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	13	-17	13.9	15.9	-2.00	12.1	16.8	-4.75
Jim McIlvaine	28	28	-0.25	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	18	-27	16.3	15.4	0.88	17.5	15.8	1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.66,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 78, NJN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
MIL 90, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,1	93.2%
WAS 64, CHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.85,0.89,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%