NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	78		Excitement	5.4 [760]		MVP	Vince Carter (NJN): +12.0%
New Jersey Nets	93		Comeback	1.2 [918]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -20.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	11	67%	0.11	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	15	71%	0.22	7	-0.19	5	60%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	5	60%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	19	36%	-0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	8	11%	-0.13	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.03	0.05	23	63%	0.15	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.10	-0.02	11	55%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bernard Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Adams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	12	35%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	10	45%	-0.03	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.7	29.8	15.5	23.9	2.6	28.5	125.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +31.0%

ORL -8.5%

NJN +14.6%

NJN +12.3%

NJN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NJN	NBA	ORL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.8	16.0	15.4	85.7	103.3	104.5
season	15.9	15.4		103.4	103.1
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.5	15.3	16.5	15.0	15.8
NJN	15.5	16.7	16.2	15.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	12.5	15.9	-3.41	23.5	15.8	7.68
Carlos Arroyo	44	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-10	5	14.6	17.0	-2.37	15.3	16.6	-1.27
Keith Bogans	67	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-9	3	15.7	16.2	-0.56	15.2	18.0	-2.78
Darko Milicic	71	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	-3	-9	15.7	16.3	-0.60	15.6	17.4	-1.82
Dwight Howard	77	78	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-11	7	16.0	15.0	0.99	15.9	16.4	-0.49
Hedo Turkoglu	57	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-12	9	15.9	15.7	0.21	16.4	15.1	1.31
JJ Redick	44	44	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-6	-3	16.5	15.3	1.20	17.1	14.9	2.20
Jameer Nelson	67	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	4	-23	16.5	14.0	2.49	15.9	16.2	-0.36
Bo Outlaw	26	24	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.07	-18	3	-21	15.5	16.0	-0.42	17.2	15.6	1.61

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	39	39	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.20	16	-1	17	17.8	14.6	3.19	15.9	15.8	0.11
Marcus Williams	43	41	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.19	14	1	13	16.0	16.0	0.02	13.8	17.5	-3.65
Clifford Robinson	51	50	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	4	7	15.9	16.1	-0.11	14.5	17.5	-3.05
Bostjan Nachbar	36	36	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	5	5	18.2	14.5	3.72	15.7	15.9	-0.14
Antoine Wright	51	53	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	7	1	16.1	15.9	0.16	17.1	14.0	3.11
Jason Collins	48	50	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.18	9	6	3	15.0	17.1	-2.03	16.8	14.7	2.10
Vince Carter	67	68	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.07	5	10	-5	15.3	17.9	-2.53	15.7	16.2	-0.45
Josh Boone	11	12	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	12	-9	17.8	15.7	2.08	15.3	15.9	-0.58
Bernard Robinson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	24.0	15.9	8.10	13.0	15.9	-2.87
Hassan Adams	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	24.0	15.9	8.10	13.0	15.9	-2.87
Jason Kidd	56	58	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.16	4	11	-7	14.8	17.9	-3.04	16.5	14.7	1.74
Mikki Moore	46	46	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	20	-25	15.2	16.8	-1.58	16.2	15.4	0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
TOR 90, NJN 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
TOR 81, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,1	93.7%