NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	6.1 [564]		MVP	Gerard King (WAS): +10.5%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	1.1 [1052]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): -25.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerard King	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	76%	0.12	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Michael Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Popeye Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	9	35%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	11	50%	-0.01	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	0.00	10	37%	-0.09	3	-0.08	7	57%	-0.02
Mitch Richmond	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.16	-0.10	-0.00	13	36%	-0.14	5	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	25	52%	0.09	2	-0.02	11	73%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Amaechi	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	58%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.07	-0.02	10	48%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	6	53%	-0.00	5	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	31.4	16.6	23.4	3.3	34.5	137.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +4.3%

ORL +8.9%

WAS -3.1%

ORL +36.7%

ORL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	13.8	15.5	87.8	99.0	100.9
season	15.2	14.6		98.6	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		100.8	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.7	13.0	17.8	16.9	15.6
ORL	11.6	12.2	14.9	17.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	12	11	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-16	21	17.2	15.4	1.84	14.4	13.7	0.69
Cherokee Parks	12	12	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.12	6	-17	23	14.0	15.9	-1.86	14.2	13.7	0.47
Felipe Lopez	55	55	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-14	17	15.7	15.6	0.05	15.5	11.5	4.04
Gerard King	26	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.30	5	-16	21	16.5	15.3	1.23	15.0	13.3	1.64
Jahidi White	27	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-2	-7	16.0	15.5	0.51	13.9	13.7	0.18
Rod Strickland	66	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	-1	-9	14.8	17.4	-2.59	14.0	13.3	0.64
Juwan Howard	71	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-1	-9	15.3	16.4	-1.12	14.3	12.5	1.81
Chris Whitney	32	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.23	-1	-10	9	17.4	14.8	2.59	13.3	14.0	-0.64
Mitch Richmond	79	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.07	-12	1	-13	15.3	17.0	-1.70	13.4	15.1	-1.61
Obinna Ekezie	14	15	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-4	-3	18.1	15.2	2.85	11.1	14.2	-3.10
Richard Hamilton	43	42	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	0	-11	15.1	16.1	-0.96	12.0	15.1	-3.03
Michael Smith	53	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.18	-14	3	-17	15.7	15.6	0.10	13.0	14.8	-1.80

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	56	56	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-1	13	13.6	14.0	-0.39	16.5	14.5	2.07
Mike Miller	46	46	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-3	17	14.3	13.3	0.95	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Tracy McGrady	94	94	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	0	11	13.8	12.2	1.57	15.6	17.0	-1.43
Michael Doleac	33	33	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	4	3	12.8	14.2	-1.46	15.6	15.7	-0.09
Darrell Armstrong	72	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	1	9	13.6	14.2	-0.65	15.5	16.1	-0.65
Monty Williams	16	16	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.18	2	9	-7	16.2	13.3	2.98	19.1	15.0	4.17
Grant Hill	72	72	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	6	-1	12.7	16.8	-4.15	14.7	18.1	-3.33
John Amaechi	49	49	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	11	-11	14.6	12.9	1.67	16.7	14.6	2.12
Troy Hudson	13	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	15	-19	12.0	14.0	-2.02	12.9	16.0	-3.09
Bo Outlaw	39	39	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	13	-15	14.9	13.0	1.94	15.1	16.0	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.92,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 104, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	94.3%
DET 83, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%
NOH 80, DAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%