NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	108		Excitement	6.8 [467]		MVP	Nate Robinson (DEN): +20.9%
Denver Nuggets	111		Comeback	2.0 [686]		LVP	Tony Allen (MEM): -15.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kosta Koufos	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	6	69%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Conley	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	15	66%	0.17	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Zach Randolph	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	18	58%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	65%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nick Calathes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jon Leuer	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	79%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.05
Tony Allen	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.08	0.03	6	56%	0.01	4	-0.17	6	67%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.14	-0.00	10	62%	0.25	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	8	89%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	9	80%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.01	8	72%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	8	63%	0.17	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	12	60%	0.17	5	-0.12	6	83%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	10	40%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	29.6	15.6	31.4	1.8	37.1	142.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +52.3%

MEM -6.6%

DEN +7.3%

MEM -5.0%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	15.1	112.5	113.3	105.2
season	16.4	14.0		104.5	104.5
opponent	14.9	15.2		106.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.6	16.0	14.0	14.8	15.1
DEN	15.0	14.0	13.7	15.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	58	59	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.26	12	-15	27	15.0	15.2	-0.21	14.5	14.8	-0.39
Jerryd Bayless	22	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-3	3	15.4	15.0	0.36	12.8	15.2	-2.41
Mike Conley	71	73	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-11	19	14.8	16.0	-1.19	14.7	14.3	0.45
Tony Allen	73	72	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-4	5	14.6	16.6	-1.95	15.5	12.0	3.50
Ed Davis	36	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	0	-3	14.9	15.2	-0.22	15.4	14.1	1.28
Jon Leuer	30	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.31	4	-7	11	14.5	15.4	-0.90	15.4	14.3	1.09
Zach Randolph	77	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-4	5	15.0	15.4	-0.42	14.2	16.3	-2.18
James Johnson	27	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	5	-13	15.3	15.0	0.35	13.3	15.1	-1.82
Kosta Koufos	45	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	7	-17	15.7	14.5	1.18	14.9	14.4	0.58
Nick Calathes	10	9	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	7	-17	16.8	14.9	1.92	14.8	14.6	0.18
Mike Miller	31	34	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	7	-17	16.1	14.6	1.54	14.0	14.9	-0.94

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nate Robinson	44	44	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-10	23	16.2	13.3	2.97	15.0	15.2	-0.20
Timofey Mozgov	46	46	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-11	25	16.1	13.3	2.78	15.3	14.8	0.51
Evan Fournier	43	42	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.32	6	-3	9	15.3	14.1	1.19	14.7	15.4	-0.74
Kenneth Faried	58	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.45	-1	4	-5	15.3	13.6	1.63	15.4	14.7	0.66
Randy Foye	68	66	0.28	0.21	0.07	0.26	1	2	-1	14.5	14.8	-0.32	15.5	14.3	1.19
Wilson Chandler	63	63	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	5	-7	14.3	15.1	-0.74	14.8	15.7	-0.89
Darrell Arthur	40	42	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.19	-5	8	-13	12.9	15.8	-2.94	15.5	14.8	0.74
Ty Lawson	78	76	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.25	-9	12	-21	13.7	18.2	-4.57	14.8	16.0	-1.22
JJ Hickson	50	46	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	5	-7	13.8	15.5	-1.70	14.9	15.3	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.78,0.91,0.87,0.69,0.78,0.96,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 112, DEN 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.86,0.78,0.91,0.98,1	93.0%
MIA 85, SEA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.66,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	92.7%
HOU 86, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.9,0.77,0.95,1	92.2%