NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	94		Excitement	6.9 [395]		MVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): +18.1%
Chicago Bulls	103		Comeback	1.9 [706]		LVP	Thabo Sefolosha (CHI): -21.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.19	0.02	0.06	11	81%	0.16	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	53%	0.02	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	18	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11	0.00	-0.10	0.01	12	53%	-0.05	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03
Marvin Williams	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	14	31%	-0.13	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Al Horford	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	5	25%	-0.06	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	17	42%	-0.03	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.09	-0.02	8	68%	0.20	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	8	89%	0.17	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	23	58%	0.13	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.04
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	13	54%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	14	47%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.06	0.00	10	20%	-0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	30.5	15.5	23.4	2.4	32.5	129.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +32.2%

CHI +1.7%

CHI +8.9%

CHI +11.2%

ATL -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.8	15.7	15.4	100.0	108.4	105.7
season	15.4	15.0		104.2	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.7		105.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	15.4	15.6	13.6	14.8
CHI	16.0	16.6	15.1	15.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Law	11	12	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-11	13	13.5	14.9	-1.49	14.8	15.8	-1.00
Mario West	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-10	11	6.0	15.0	-8.96	32.0	15.4	16.65
Zaza Pachulia	28	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-12	15	13.0	15.5	-2.57	17.3	15.0	2.24
Al Horford	60	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-5	1	16.3	12.0	4.29	15.0	16.9	-1.96
Josh Childress	55	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.30	-1	-8	7	14.7	14.9	-0.18	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Marvin Williams	70	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-3	-3	15.0	14.2	0.75	15.6	15.9	-0.27
Joe Johnson	94	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	14.8	0.0	14.77	15.7	0.0	15.71
Mike Bibby	83	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	2	-13	14.9	13.5	1.49	15.8	14.8	1.00
Josh Smith	67	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.01	-20	11	-31	14.3	16.0	-1.78	15.4	16.4	-0.93

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	49	49	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.03	20	-11	31	15.7	15.7	-0.07	15.8	13.7	2.11
Drew Gooden	75	74	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-4	17	15.8	15.2	0.58	14.6	15.4	-0.87
Kirk Hinrich	78	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-1	11	15.6	16.0	-0.36	15.0	13.6	1.44
Joakim Noah	56	57	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.09	13	-4	17	15.4	16.1	-0.63	15.6	13.5	2.15
Luol Deng	78	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	3	3	16.0	14.2	1.86	14.4	16.6	-2.17
Thabo Sefolosha	46	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	4	1	16.1	15.3	0.74	14.2	15.3	-1.09
Tyrus Thomas	19	17	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	8	-7	15.8	15.7	0.11	16.2	14.5	1.72
Ben Gordon	46	46	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.30	-11	20	-31	15.7	15.7	0.07	13.5	16.0	-2.56
Andres Nocioni	28	27	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.10	-12	21	-33	14.5	16.2	-1.76	14.3	15.0	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 104, CHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.7,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	93.2%
SAC 104, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.0%
LAL 85, PHX 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.98,1	92.5%