NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	5.9 [600]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +22.6%
Dallas Mavericks	81		Comeback	5.7 [130]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -17.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.05	-0.06	15	63%	0.23	0	0.00	11	100%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	0.00	4	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	87%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	-0.06	0.10	-0.00	21	40%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	7	12%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	21	28%	-0.17	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.00	13	61%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	15	59%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	13	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	12	46%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	10	35%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	3.6	32.5	19.3	31.6	3.7	33.2	149.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -3.1%

SAS +14.2%

SAS +35.5%

SAS +2.1%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	17.9	14.6	15.4	98.9	92.0	105.7
season	16.5	16.1		104.7	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		105.0	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	19.6	17.2	17.8	17.9
DAL	12.8	14.7	17.9	13.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	64	66	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.25	13	-6	19	16.7	21.2	-4.49	14.8	14.0	0.73
Ime Udoka	55	54	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-3	13	17.1	19.2	-2.06	15.3	13.5	1.73
Bruce Bowen	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.29	11	-4	15	18.2	16.4	1.78	14.5	15.1	-0.57
Tim Duncan	65	64	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-7	21	18.0	17.9	0.08	14.5	14.9	-0.39
Jacque Vaughn	17	18	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	-3	13	18.4	17.8	0.52	19.4	13.4	6.03
Tony Parker	72	70	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	10	-13	17.8	18.4	-0.52	13.4	19.4	-6.03
Kurt Thomas	26	26	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	9	-11	17.7	18.0	-0.34	16.6	13.8	2.82
Michael Finley	45	43	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.10	-9	16	-25	18.5	17.3	1.22	13.6	15.5	-1.93
Fabricio Oberto	26	25	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.01	-9	16	-25	21.0	16.7	4.39	12.8	15.3	-2.45

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	65	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-8	9	13.6	17.3	-3.73	18.5	16.5	1.96
Tyronn Lue	17	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-6	5	17.2	14.0	3.28	16.7	18.3	-1.59
Malik Allen	26	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-8	9	15.3	14.3	1.07	16.6	18.5	-1.88
Dirk Nowitzki	48	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	14.2	15.1	-0.93	18.5	17.3	1.19
Erick Dampier	41	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-3	-1	14.8	14.4	0.35	19.9	16.2	3.64
Jerry Stackhouse	64	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-8	9	14.2	15.5	-1.31	17.6	18.7	-1.02
Jason Terry	54	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-6	5	13.8	15.9	-2.06	18.0	17.9	0.12
Brandon Bass	21	21	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	0	-7	17.5	13.7	3.79	15.9	18.6	-2.72
Devean George	30	32	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	5	-17	16.3	13.7	2.54	19.0	17.4	1.62
Josh Howard	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	0	-7	14.1	17.0	-2.86	17.2	21.9	-4.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.1,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 87, CHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.5%
PHI 92, NOH 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.09,0.01,0	91.8%
NJN 99, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.78,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.08,0.15,0.02,0	91.7%