NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	98		Excitement	1.8 [1307]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +14.7%
Miami Heat	73		Comeback	1.0 [1310]		LVP	Mark Blount (MIA): -10.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.01	0.02	11	72%	0.15	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	6	71%	0.09	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	14	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Tyronn Lue	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	7	29%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.05	9	78%	0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Terry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	10	61%	-0.01	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Devean George	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.13	0.00	-0.09	6	7%	-0.03	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.12	0.00	0.11	14	64%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.00
Bobby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	57%	0.00	2	-0.00	3	67%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	12	46%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	5	42%	-0.02	3	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	5	17%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.17	0.00	-0.13	11	27%	0.00	5	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	0.05	10	41%	-0.09	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.6	28.4	15.5	25.3	2.5	25.3	126.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.7%

DAL +12.3%

DAL +4.8%

DAL +0.9%

DAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.5	15.4	107.7	80.2	105.7
season	16.1	16.0		108.9	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.4		108.3	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.1	17.6	13.0	19.4	15.1
MIA	16.2	17.5	15.8	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	51	51	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.46	32	-7	39	14.4	16.1	-1.80	17.1	15.8	1.26
Dirk Nowitzki	49	49	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.33	25	0	25	13.8	16.8	-3.01	16.7	16.2	0.50
Jason Kidd	45	46	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.33	24	1	23	13.6	16.7	-3.14	17.1	15.9	1.26
Erick Dampier	41	42	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	8	9	15.4	14.9	0.54	17.2	15.9	1.36
Jerry Stackhouse	38	37	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.29	22	3	19	14.9	15.3	-0.43	18.1	15.4	2.61
Brandon Bass	49	47	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.16	11	14	-3	14.6	15.7	-1.11	16.6	16.4	0.14
Jason Terry	44	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	20	-15	14.3	15.9	-1.60	15.5	17.5	-2.01
Tyronn Lue	41	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	24	-23	16.1	14.4	1.74	15.5	17.3	-1.84
Malik Allen	34	35	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	26	-27	16.2	14.5	1.65	15.5	17.1	-1.56
Devean George	40	40	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.22	-7	32	-39	16.1	14.4	1.80	15.8	17.1	-1.26
Antoine Wright	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	27	-29	20.7	14.1	6.58	16.6	16.5	0.08
Juwan Howard	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	27	-29	20.2	14.6	5.64	15.2	16.6	-1.42

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	43	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.22	7	-32	39	16.6	16.4	0.19	16.5	13.9	2.61
Joel Anthony	48	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-27	29	16.8	16.2	0.61	17.0	13.1	3.88
Alexander Johnson	22	21	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	-18	11	19.2	15.7	3.53	15.4	15.1	0.37
Bobby Jones	52	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.16	-13	-12	-1	15.2	18.3	-3.15	15.0	15.3	-0.34
Earl Barron	53	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.25	-17	-8	-9	15.4	18.1	-2.70	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Ricky Davis	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.26	-20	-5	-15	17.5	14.7	2.79	14.2	16.8	-2.58
Mark Blount	52	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.31	-25	0	-25	16.6	16.4	0.12	13.8	17.0	-3.23
Jason Williams	52	53	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.43	-30	5	-35	16.1	17.1	-0.96	13.5	17.4	-3.82
Daequan Cook	75	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.12	-22	-3	-19	16.7	15.7	0.99	16.1	10.4	5.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.3%
MIA 111, CLE 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%
BOS 114, NYK 73	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%