NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	114		Excitement	8.6 [153]		MVP	Ronnie Brewer (UTA): +19.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	110		Comeback	29.4 [76]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (MIL): -13.5%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronnie Brewer	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.31,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	12	62%	0.19	0	0.00	10	90%	0.06
Andrei Kirilenko	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	6	86%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	14	56%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Carlos Boozer	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.06	-0.02	0.10	0.02	15	57%	0.22	5	-0.16	5	80%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	78%	0.08	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.11	0.07	-0.16	0.02	18	62%	0.01	3	-0.12	6	83%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.06	-0.03	16	63%	0.27	4	-0.13	6	50%	-0.04
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	4	83%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.02,0.16,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	21	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	52%	0.05	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	56%	0.08	3	-0.15	2	0%	-0.04
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.13	-0.13	0.05	-0.15	0.03	19	60%	0.10	4	-0.23	5	40%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	29.2	15.7	26.1	1.5	39.8	137.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -4.6%

UTA +28.4%

UTA +1.3%

UTA +24.5%

UTA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.7	15.4	115.2	111.1	105.7
season	15.5	15.8		111.2	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.0		110.7	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	13.2	16.7	13.7	14.5	14.4
MIL	16.3	15.3	14.0	13.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Brewer	73	72	1.09	-0.59	1.68	0.38	24	-20	44	13.1	18.1	-4.99	14.5	15.2	-0.73
Andrei Kirilenko	70	70	0.96	-0.46	1.43	0.38	20	-16	36	14.3	14.8	-0.51	15.0	13.9	1.07
Carlos Boozer	80	79	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.37	20	-16	36	13.7	17.4	-3.70	15.0	13.4	1.57
Deron Williams	86	87	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-7	18	14.5	13.8	0.77	14.6	15.0	-0.39
Mehmet Okur	82	83	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	4	-4	15.1	11.3	3.79	14.4	15.9	-1.53
Ronnie Price	13	12	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	11	-18	13.8	14.5	-0.77	15.0	14.6	0.39
Paul Millsap	36	36	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	16	-28	14.5	14.4	0.15	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Matt Harpring	29	29	-0.46	0.96	-1.43	0.01	-16	20	-36	14.8	14.3	0.51	13.9	15.0	-1.07
Kyle Korver	26	27	-0.59	1.09	-1.68	-0.00	-20	24	-44	18.1	13.1	4.99	15.2	14.5	0.73

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	43	42	0.56	-1.06	1.62	0.18	13	-17	30	14.9	14.5	0.44	15.0	14.1	0.90
Dan Gadzuric	42	42	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.11	8	-12	20	15.8	13.8	1.96	14.4	14.4	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	19	17	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-11	18	15.1	14.5	0.56	16.6	14.0	2.67
Charlie Bell	73	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.49	9	-13	22	14.4	15.5	-1.09	14.5	14.3	0.21
Royal Ivey	49	51	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	7	-18	14.9	14.4	0.48	15.2	13.6	1.57
Bobby Simmons	30	30	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.07	-16	12	-28	13.9	15.0	-1.04	13.9	14.7	-0.77
Andrew Bogut	77	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	7	-18	14.5	15.4	-0.91	14.1	15.7	-1.60
Charlie Villanueva	80	79	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.61	-3	-1	-2	14.2	16.4	-2.18	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Michael Redd	82	83	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.25	-16	12	-28	14.8	13.9	0.93	13.8	17.5	-3.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.68,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 113, HOU 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.91,0	91.1%
LAC 105, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.58,0	90.6%
NOH 98, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.38,0.53,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.57,0.72,0	90.2%