NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	105		Excitement	8.5 [150]		MVP	Corey Maggette (LAC): +28.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	15.2 [46]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -31.2%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.29	0.01	0.25	-0.03	12	59%	0.32	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.07
Bobby Simmons	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.16	-0.01	0.15	-0.02	6	67%	0.22	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	4	67%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Marko Jaric	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	45%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	17	61%	0.07	1	-0.04	17	76%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	16	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.06
Chris Kaman	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	100%	0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	19%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	0	0%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.06
Chris Wilcox	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	8	12%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	14	68%	0.19	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	10	63%	0.13	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.05
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.00	8	57%	-0.02	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	7	43%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.31	-0.31	-0.13	-0.22	-0.03	16	34%	-0.31	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.21

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.4	25.7	0.7	35.3	2.5	49.0	140.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +40.8%

MIL -10.1%

LAC +22.0%

MIL -1.8%

MIL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIL	NBA	LAC	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.3	15.7	108.2	107.3	100.5
season	15.5	15.3		101.3	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	12.6	18.7	15.0	12.3	14.5
MIL	16.2	14.0	14.3	16.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Maggette	62	64	1.11	-0.61	1.73	0.56	19	-17	36	15.9	12.2	3.68	15.9	14.2	1.66
Marko Jaric	68	68	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.58	12	-10	22	13.4	17.1	-3.63	15.5	14.9	0.66
Quentin Richardson	85	85	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-9	20	14.2	16.7	-2.54	15.2	16.5	-1.38
Bobby Simmons	42	42	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	-2	6	13.4	15.4	-1.98	16.0	14.8	1.16
Elton Brand	88	85	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	3	-4	14.2	17.4	-3.22	15.7	12.5	3.14
Chris Kaman	43	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	0	2	14.4	14.6	-0.19	14.9	15.7	-0.79
Chris Wilcox	31	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	9	-16	16.5	13.6	2.88	14.1	15.9	-1.75
Keyon Dooling	17	16	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.01	-7	9	-16	12.9	14.9	-1.92	14.7	15.4	-0.69
Eddie House	30	29	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.16	-7	9	-16	16.7	13.6	3.15	14.3	15.7	-1.40
Matt Barnes	19	20	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	-0.07	-16	18	-34	14.4	14.6	-0.20	15.2	15.3	-0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	31	31	0.47	-0.97	1.44	0.12	12	-14	26	14.7	15.6	-0.86	16.5	13.6	2.88
Desmond Mason	57	58	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.12	1	-3	4	15.3	15.3	0.03	14.1	15.1	-1.01
Joe Smith	46	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	4	-10	15.5	15.2	0.26	14.1	15.0	-0.90
Keith Van Horn	59	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.49	8	-10	18	15.3	15.4	-0.05	14.7	14.2	0.53
Damon Jones	67	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.58	10	-12	22	14.9	16.3	-1.41	14.4	14.9	-0.57
T.J. Ford	30	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.16	-15	13	-28	15.8	15.1	0.65	14.6	14.5	0.14
Toni Kukoc	50	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.46	4	-6	10	15.2	15.5	-0.26	15.0	14.1	0.90
Michael Redd	76	75	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.61	-9	7	-16	15.4	15.1	0.28	14.6	14.3	0.33
Brian Skinner	64	65	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.49	-15	13	-28	15.8	14.4	1.38	13.8	16.0	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, IND 88	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.84,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.73,0	91.0%
IND 82, BOS 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.54,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.78,0.9,0.78,0.71,0.27,0	90.8%
PHX 121, DAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.66,0.85,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.96,0.9,0.74,0	90.8%