NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	8.1 [251]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +46.1%
Indiana Pacers	88		Comeback	13.8 [69]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -21.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.46	0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,0.07,0.46	0.12	0.37	0.04	12	81%	0.71	6	-0.25	12	92%	0.21
Nazr Mohammed	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	7	86%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	15	47%	0.11	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.01	12	62%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.00	15	28%	-0.17	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.09

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.11	-0.00	13	62%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.09,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.11	0.00	13	50%	0.16	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.12
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	8	62%	0.09	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	45%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.15	2	0%	-0.04
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	11	50%	-0.02	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	32.5	17.7	25.2	3.5	44.2	151.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -8.2%

SAS +22.9%

SAS +21.4%

SAS +11.1%

SAS +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	IND	NBA	SAS	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	16.0	15.6	103.4	97.8	104.4
season	16.3	16.0		106.0	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		100.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	17.4	17.1	14.3	16.2
IND	15.7	16.1	16.4	15.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	64	67	1.16	-0.66	1.82	0.34	28	-24	52	15.8	17.2	-1.32	16.0	15.8	0.25
Tony Parker	67	69	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.53	11	-7	18	15.7	17.7	-2.01	16.2	15.3	0.89
Tim Duncan	63	65	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	-5	14	16.0	16.6	-0.57	16.7	14.1	2.56
Bruce Bowen	72	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	1	2	15.9	17.5	-1.63	16.6	13.3	3.29
Rasho Nesterovic	29	29	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.06	14	-10	24	15.7	16.4	-0.73	18.3	14.9	3.46
Robert Horry	36	35	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	8	-12	16.0	16.4	-0.41	14.2	17.1	-2.94
Brent Barry	14	13	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.24	-5	9	-14	14.4	16.6	-2.20	16.0	16.0	0.04
Nick Van Exel	22	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.14	-7	11	-18	17.7	15.7	2.01	15.3	16.2	-0.89
Nazr Mohammed	48	49	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.08	-12	16	-28	17.5	14.7	2.88	15.1	17.0	-1.94
Michael Finley	30	29	-0.56	1.06	-1.63	-0.07	-17	21	-38	17.6	15.5	2.09	14.0	16.9	-2.95

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	28	28	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.12	6	-10	16	13.9	16.9	-2.96	17.0	15.8	1.20
Sarunas Jasikevicius	33	33	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.18	2	-6	8	14.7	16.7	-1.96	16.2	16.2	-0.10
Fred Jones	51	51	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.14	11	-15	26	14.8	17.5	-2.68	16.3	16.1	0.14
David Harrison	32	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-7	10	14.2	17.0	-2.81	16.7	15.9	0.79
Scot Pollard	59	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	3	-10	17.2	13.6	3.64	16.6	15.5	1.07
Peja Stojakovic	65	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	0	-4	16.4	14.9	1.45	16.3	16.0	0.30
Anthony Johnson	57	56	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.56	-6	2	-8	16.7	14.7	1.96	16.2	16.2	0.10
Jeff Foster	59	59	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.49	-9	5	-14	16.8	14.4	2.41	15.7	17.2	-1.54
Stephen Jackson	66	65	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.47	-16	12	-28	16.3	14.9	1.43	15.6	17.8	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.84,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 77, LAC 76	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.25,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.91,0	91.1%
LAC 105, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.58,0	91.0%
IND 92, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.85,0.42,0	90.4%